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[Industry Focus]：Cost side strong push up, phenol prices continue to rise

Read： 472 Time：15months ago Source：卓创化工、百川盈孚

In September 2023, phenol market prices rose strongly, driven by rising crude oil futures prices and strong cost side. Although prices have risen, downstream demand has not grown simultaneously, which may have a certain restrictive effect on the market. However, the market is still optimistic about the future prospects of phenol, and believes that short-term fluctuations do not change the overall upward trend.

This article will analyze the latest developments in this market, including price trends, transaction conditions, supply and demand conditions, and future prospects.

1, phenol Price innovation high

as of September 11, 2023, the market price of phenol has reached 9335 yuan per ton, up 5.35 percent from the previous working day, and the market price has reached a new high in the current year. This upward trend has attracted widespread attention as market prices have returned to levels above the 2018-2022 average for the same period.

2019-2023年华东苯酚市场价格走势图.jpg

2. Strong support on the cost side

the price increase in the phenol market is due to several factors. First of all, the continuous increase in crude oil futures prices has provided support for the upstream pure benzene market prices, because the production of phenol is closely related to crude oil prices. High costs give the phenol market a strong guiding role, and the strong rise in the cost side is a key driver of price increases.

The strength of the cost side pushed up the market price of phenol. Phenol factories in Shandong were the first to announce a price increase of 200 yuan/ton, and the ex-factory price was 9200 yuan/ton (including tax). Immediately afterwards, East China cargo holders also raised the outbound price to 9300-9350 yuan/ton (including tax). At noon, East China Petrochemical Company once again announced an increase in the listing price of 400 yuan/ton, and the implementation of the ex-factory price is still 9200 yuan/ton (including tax). Although the price rose in the morning, the actual transaction in the afternoon was relatively weak, and the transaction price range was concentrated between 9200-9250 yuan/ton (including tax).

3. Limited changes on the supply side

according to the tracking calculation of the start of the existing domestic phenol ketone plant, the domestic phenol output is expected to be about 355400 tons in September, down 1.69 from last month's domestic production. Considering that the natural day in August is one more day than that in September, overall, the change in domestic supply is limited. The main focus of the industry will be on changes in port inventory.

国内苯酚装置月内检修汇总.jpg

4, demand-side profits are challenged.

Last week there were large BPA, phenolic resin in the market replenishment procurement, and last Friday there was new production capacity in the market procurement of test materials, phenol Price soaring, the downstream did not fully follow the rise. A 240000-ton bisphenol A plant in Zhejiang was restarted at the weekend. The August overhaul of the 150000-ton bisphenol A plant in Nantong basically resumed normal production load. The market price of bisphenol A remained at the quotation level of 11,750-11,800 yuan/ton. In the case of phenol and acetone prices rose strongly, the profits of the bisphenol A industry were swallowed by the phenol rally.

5, phenol ketone factory profitability.

Profitability of phenol ketone plants improved during the week. As the prices of pure benzene and propylene are relatively stable, the cost remains unchanged, and the selling price rises, the profit per ton of phenol ketone products is as high as 738 yuan.

2022-2023年中国华东酚酮企业理论盈利情况示意图.jpg

6-Future Outlook

for the future, the market continues to be optimistic about phenol. Although there may be consolidation and correction in the short term, the overall trend is still up. The focus of market attention includes the impact of the Hangzhou Asian Games on the transportation of phenol market, and when the wave of stocking before the eleventh festival will come. It is expected that this week, the price of East China phenol port shipments will be between 9200-9650 yuan/ton.

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