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[Industry Focus]：With the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry, the demand for EVA has increased significantly.

Read： 458 Time：16months ago Source：第八元素塑料板块

In the first half of 2023, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity reached 78.42GW, compared with 30.88GW in the same period in 2022, an astonishing growth of 47.54GW, or 153.95 per cent. The rise in photovoltaic demand has led to a significant increase in the supply and demand of EVA, which is expected to reach 3.135 million tons in 2023 and further climb to 4.153 million tons in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.4 per cent over the next five years.

Photovoltaic industry rapid development of installed capacity hit a record high

data source: Jinlianchuang, National Energy Administration

in 2022, the global consumption of EVA resin will reach 4.151 million tons, mainly used in the field of film and sheet. The domestic EVA industry has also shown a good momentum of development in recent years. Between 2018 and 2022, EVA apparent consumption grew at a compound annual rate of 15.6 per cent, with a year-on-year increase of 26.4 per cent to 2.776 million tonnes in 2022.

In the first half of 2023, China's new photovoltaic installed capacity reached 78.42GW, compared with 30.88GW in the same period in 2022, an astonishing growth of 47.54GW, an increase of 153.95. Monthly installed capacity is consistently higher than in the same period in 2022, with monthly growth fluctuating between 88 and 466 per cent. In particular, June became the highest installed capacity in a single month, reaching 17.21GW, up 140 percent year-on-year, while March became the month with the largest increase, with new installed capacity reaching 13.29GW, up 466 percent year-on-year.

Photovoltaic upstream silicon market also quickly released new capacity, however, supply is much greater than demand, resulting in silicon prices continue to fall, industry costs, help the photovoltaic industry to maintain high growth and maintain strong end demand. This growth momentum in turn triggered a surge in demand for upstream EVA particles, prompting the EVA industry to continue to expand production capacity.

PV demand growth led to a significant increase in EVA supply and demand

data source: Jin Lianchuang

the rise in demand for photovoltaics has led to a significant increase in the demand for EVA, the release of domestic production capacity in the first half of 2023, as well as the commissioning of enterprises such as Gulei Petrochemical, have contributed to the increase in domestic EVA supply, while imports have also increased.

EVA supply (including total domestic production and imports) reached 1.6346 million tons per year in the first half of 2023, an increase of 298400 tons or 22.33 per cent over the same period in 2022. The monthly supply is higher than the same period in 2022, with monthly growth between 8% and 47%, and February was the time when supply increased the most. The supply of domestic EVA reached 156000 tons in February 2023, up 25.0 percent year-on-year and down 7.6 percent month-on-month, mainly due to the shutdown and maintenance of some petrochemical plants and fewer working days. Meanwhile, EVA imports were 136900 tonnes in February 2023, up 80.00 per cent from the previous month and 82.39 per cent from the same period in 2022. The impact of the Spring Festival holiday led to the postponement of some EVA supplies to Hong Kong, coupled with the expected improvement in the market after the Spring Festival, the supply of imported EVA increased significantly.

It is expected that the photovoltaic industry will continue to maintain a high growth momentum in the future. With the gradual easing of the epidemic, the domestic economy will fully recover, Internet communications, high-speed rail and other infrastructure projects will continue to advance, residents living areas, including health care, sports, agriculture, etc., will also achieve steady growth. This combination of factors will steadily drive the increasing demand for EVA in different segments. It is estimated that the total demand for EVA is expected to reach 3.135 million tons in 2023 and is expected to further climb to 4.153 million tons in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.4 per cent over the next five years.

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