[Industry Focus]：PC import and export situation analysis in the first half of the year, PC exports are expected to continue to increase in the future

In the first half of 2023, China's PC capacity and capacity utilization reached an unprecedented high level, and domestic PC production reached a new high. At the same time, domestic PC imports continued to decline, and exports increased significantly. The net import volume was only 336000 tons, down 39.59 percent from the same period last year, the lowest in history.

source: Longzhong Information

domestic PC import statistics in the first half of 2023

unit: tons, USD/ton

source: Longzhong Information

in the first half of 2023, the domestic PC import volume decreased significantly. The monthly import volume from January to June was lower than the level of the same period last year. The cumulative import volume decreased by more than 25% compared with the same period last year, and decreased by more than 22% compared with the second half of last year. The average import price was also significantly lower than the level of the same period last year.

In 2023, China's domestic PC production increased significantly, and the price difference with imported materials continued to be more than 1000 yuan/ton, greatly enhancing the application substitution effect of imported materials. At the same time, the RMB continues to devalue the US dollar on its own initiative, and the cost of imports has increased significantly, which has also brought great pressure on imported materials. The above factors led to a sharp decline in domestic PC imports in the first half of the year.

Source: Longzhong Information

taiwan, South Korea, Thailand and Saudi Arabia are China's major trading partners for PC imports. In the past five years, they accounted for 65% of total imports. Judging from the situation of major domestic PC import trading partners in the first half of 2023, PC imports fell sharply compared with the same period last year, with Saudi Arabia's PC imports falling 34.49 percent year-on-year and China's Taiwan Province and South Korea PC imports falling 23.35 percent year-on-year. Thailand's PC imports fell more than 19 percent to 25.09 percent year-on-year.

In the second half of the year, PC imports from Taiwan, China may face the impact of anti-dumping tariff policies. Both South Korea and Saudi Arabia implement tariff collection policies in accordance with established agreements. Considering the expected increase in domestic PC and the impact of the RMB exchange rate, only Thai PCs continue to enjoy tariff-free, and PC imports in the above four places will maintain a downward trend.

source: Longzhong Information

domestic PC Export Statistics in the First Half of 2023

unit: tons, USD/ton

source: Longzhong Information

in the first half of 2023, domestic PC exports grew steadily and increased significantly year-on-year. According to customs statistics, the total domestic PC imports from January to June were 191600 tons, an increase of 27.31 percent over the same period last year and 36.47 percent over the same period last year. The average export price from January to June was 2467.22 US dollars per ton, showing a downward trend compared with the same period last year.

In recent years, domestic PC manufacturers have actively sought export trade orders. In the past three years, domestic exports have increased significantly. Domestic PC production capacity is completely surplus, and the industry's supply and demand imbalance is serious. In order to alleviate the pressure of domestic competition. In 2023, the pace of domestic PC expansion slowed down, most equipment operations stabilized, while domestic epidemic control was completely lifted, domestic PC costs were highly competitive, and domestic PC exports continued to grow. In March, China's PC exports reached 41800 tons, up 36.60 percent from the previous month and 66.53 percent year-on-year, the highest monthly PC export volume.

Source: Longzhong Information

from the perspective of the main trading partners of domestic PC exports in the first half of the year, the exports of Vietnam, Russia, Thailand, India, South Korea, Indonesia, Israel and other countries will increase significantly in 2023, with an increase of 12%-60%.

In 2023, the level of integration and scale of the domestic PC industry chain will exceed that of overseas manufacturers, and the cost competitiveness will be greatly improved. At the same time, the RMB took the initiative to depreciate the US dollar, further increasing the advantage of domestic PC export costs. In addition, with the continuous advancement of the domestic PC export cycle and the steady improvement of domestic PC quality, domestic PC manufacturers are actively exploring overseas markets and striving to cultivate overseas users. PC exports are expected to continue to increase in the future.