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[Industry Focus]：Bisphenol A market price in the million line, or become the norm

Read： 308 Time：17months ago Source：环氧树脂交流与交易

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looking at the bisphenol A market since this year, the price is basically lower than 10000 yuan (ton price, the same below), which is different from the glorious period of more than 20000 yuan in previous years. The author believes that the imbalance between supply and demand restricts the market, the industry is under pressure, and the price is below 10000 yuan or become the norm in the future bisphenol A market.

specifically, one is a substantial increase in bisphenol A production capacity. Since the beginning of this year, the production capacity of bisphenol A has continued to be released, and the total annual production capacity of the two companies has reached 440000 tons. Affected by this, my country's total annual production capacity of bisphenol A reached 4.265 million tons, a year-on-year increase of about 55%, and the average monthly output reached 288000 tons, a record high. In the future, the expansion of bisphenol A production has not stopped, and the new production capacity of bisphenol A is expected to exceed 1.2 million tons this year. If put into production on time, the domestic bisphenol A annual production capacity will be expanded to about 5.5 million tons, an increase of 45%. At that time, the risk of the price falling below 9000 yuan will continue to accumulate.

second, corporate profits are not optimistic. Since the beginning of this year, the prosperity of the bisphenol A industry chain has been declining. From the perspective of upstream raw materials, the phenol ketone market is interpreted as the "M" trend of the phenol ketone market. In the first quarter, the phenol ketone enterprises were basically in a loss state, and most enterprises turned to positive profits in the second quarter. However, in mid-May, the phenol ketone market broke through the downward trend, with acetone falling by more than 1000 yuan and phenol falling by more than 600 yuan, directly improving the profitability of BPA companies. But even so, the BPA industry is hovering near the cost line. Currently, BPA units are continuously maintained and industry capacity utilization is declining. After the end of the maintenance season, the overall supply of BPA is expected to increase, when competitive pressure may continue to increase, and the profit outlook is still not optimistic.

third, demand support is weak. The production capacity outbreak of bisphenol A failed to match the growth of downstream demand in time, resulting in an increasingly obvious contradiction between supply and demand, which is an important factor in the continued low-level operation of the market. Polycarbonate (PC) bisphenol A downstream consumption accounted for more than 60%. Since 2022, the PC industry has entered a stock capacity digestion cycle, with end demand below the incremental supply. The contradiction between supply and demand in the market is obvious, and PC prices continue to fall, affecting the enthusiasm of enterprises to start work. At present, the utilization rate of PC capacity is less than 70%, which is difficult to improve in the short term. On the other hand, although the downstream epoxy resin production capacity continues to expand, but the terminal coating industry demand is sluggish, electronic and electrical, composite materials and other terminal consumption is difficult to substantially improve, demand-side constraints still exist, the industry capacity utilization rate of less than 50%. In general, downstream PC and epoxy resin cannot support the raw material bisphenol A.

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