[Industry Focus]：The acrylic market in the first quarter showed "fatigue"! How was the second quarter?

in the first quarter of 2023, the domestic acrylic market showed obvious weakness. In terms of prices, compared with 2022, the price range and the range of ups and downs show a large downward change. The main trend in the first quarter is that the gentle slope rises first and then falls.

of the 2023 first quarter, the market appeared a variety of fatigue impact.

Since the fourth quarter of 2022, environmental pressures on the macro side have continued until the first quarter of 2023. In January 2023, with the gradual implementation of epidemic prevention and control optimization, the domestic economy and domestic demand gradually improved.

With the approval of the State Council, starting from January 8, 2023, the prevention and control measures for Class A infectious diseases stipulated in the Law on the Prevention and Control of the People's Republic of China Infectious Diseases for novel coronavirus infection will be lifted; novel coronavirus infection will no longer be included in the management of quarantine infectious diseases stipulated in the the People's Republic of China Border Health and Quarantine Law.
Since then, public health events that have lasted for many years have gradually weakened the impact of domestic livelihood and economic development. After the optimization of epidemic prevention and control, in the first quarter of 2023, China's economy gradually began to coordinate policies, focusing on expanding domestic demand and smoothing the internal cycle. However, the real estate industry is also constantly landing rescue policies, around the real estate-related indicators are also slowly improving. The drag on China's economy from real estate investment is likely to taper off in 2023. Among them, water reducing agent and acrylic acid as raw materials will also appear in the corresponding products. Although there are some positive signals in the domestic environment, it has been from 20 to 20 years, but in acrylic products popular.

in terms of price fluctuations. In early January, the opening price of the domestic acrylic acid market was 6500 yuan/ton. Compared with the same period in 2022, there was a price difference of 5100 yuan/ton. At the end of the first quarter, the closing price at the end of March was around 6500 yuan/ton. Compared with the same period in 2022, there was a price difference of 6100 yuan/ton. In the first quarter, the price peak was around 7500 yuan/ton, which appeared in mid-February and early March respectively, and the lowest price was 6500 yuan/ton, which appeared in early January and the end of March respectively. In 2023, the price peak spread was 1000 yuan/tonne, lower than in the first quarter of '22.

, the
's price fluctuation showed a first up and then down trend, with a rise and fall range of 1000 yuan/ton, and the supply and demand stalemate was obvious.

From the domestic acrylic price trend in the first quarter of 2023, January coincides with the Spring Festival. Before January 20, the domestic acrylic acid market maintained a range fluctuation trend, with price fluctuations ranging from 6,500 to 6,800 yuan/ton; approaching the Spring Festival, the market trading atmosphere turned weak. Under the circumstances of low supply inventory and gradual restrictions on regional logistics, enterprises increased their quotations slightly, and spot orders fluctuated around 6700-6800 yuan/ton. After the Spring Festival holiday, at the end of January, the acrylic acid market gradually warmed up and downstream demand slowly recovered. In addition to supply inventory of core customers and long-term customer demand, the overall sales of spot new orders are still limited.

The acrylic acid market in February was mainly affected by the supply and demand game, showing ups and downs. Last month, the purchase volume of downstream factories slowly recovered in February, the inventory accumulation gradually decreased during the Spring Festival in January, and the market purchase volume was relatively concentrated in the first half of the year. The next month, as the overall recovery in terminal orders has not yet reached the expected level, prices further declined.

in March, the acrylic market is mainly affected by the supply and demand factors seesaw game. In the first half of the acrylic acid production enterprises parking burden reduction plan concentrated, Shanghai Huayi, Yantai Wanhua in March to maintain the whole line of parking maintenance. Most of the large domestic mainstream manufacturers load down, supply side spot production speed decreased significantly, social inventory accumulation growth rate decreased.

the
equipment operating rate decreased significantly, the enterprise centralized maintenance plan to promote the supply and demand game new situation.

overall starts fell significantly in the first quarter. According to Jinlianchuang's monitoring of the operating rate of the domestic acrylic industry, the average operating rate in the first quarter of 2023 was about 64.06 percent, down 5.93 percent from the first quarter of 2022. Among them, the main reason for the significant decline in the operating rate in the first quarter of 2023 is the centralized maintenance of equipment in domestic acrylic acid production enterprises. In March, Yantai Wanhua, Shanghai Huayi and other major domestic manufacturers of acrylic equipment for parking maintenance. The short-term burden of equipment decreased: Qilu Kaitai, Shandong Hengzheng, Shandong Hongxin, Nanjing Yangba, Jiangningbo Formosa Plastics, Lanzhou Petrochemical and other enterprises. According to the 20-month estimate, 20.

, the
demand is weak, the market is weak, and the price drop still needs to wait and see the second quarter is ready to go.

, and the centralized maintenance of acrylic acid supply in March brought information such as a slowdown in the growth rate of spot inventory, the overall environment is still slowly improving in the first quarter of 2023. As far as the development of the domestic economic situation is concerned, the gradual recovery of the demand environment still requires more environmental and policy promotion and repair.

At present, the domestic infrastructure and manufacturing economy still need to continue to improve the situation that drags down real estate. In infrastructure, as the main driver of stable growth, growth may still continue in the second quarter of 2023; in real estate, the real estate industry pattern is unstable and urgently needs policy efforts.

predicts that the second quarter will enter April-June, the off-season boundary is fuzzy, and the contradiction between domestic acrylic acid supply and demand is still concentrated on the downstream terminal consumption speed. From the perspective of supply, the operating rate of domestic acrylic acid may gradually increase at the beginning of the second quarter, and the equipment for parking and maintenance in the first quarter may resume operation in late April. The accumulation of spot inventory and the healthy circulation of supply cannot be separated from the continuous consumption of downstream areas and the expansion of industry orders. The recovery of terminal demand also depends on the recovery of confidence in the chemical environment and the terminal industry. At the end of April, the beginning of May and the end of June, the Golden Union can create a recent legal holiday or deadline, and the Golden Union can create a near deadline.