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[Industry Focus]：BDO production capacity is being released, and new production capacity of the million tons of maleic anhydride is about to enter the market.

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the 2023 domestic maleic anhydride market will usher in the maleic anhydride method BDO new product production capacity has been released, but will also face a new round of supply-side expansion in the context of the first production year test, when supply pressure may increase.

million ton new capacity is coming into the market supply side pressure heavy

2022, affected by the contraction of real estate and other end industries, domestic downstream demand fell more than expected. In this context, the supply capacity of maleic anhydride is relatively surplus, which significantly inhibits the market trend. However, driven by the development expectations of emerging downstream fields such as degradable plastics and new energy vehicles, the planned production capacity of domestic maleic anhydride will still exceed 8 million tons in the next five years, and the industry will usher in a new round of unprecedented capacity expansion.

the
as a new round of expansion wave of the beginning, only 2023, China will usher in about 1.66 million tons of n-butane method new production capacity production plan, can be said to be worthy of the name of the production of the new year, which is undoubtedly the current oversupply of maleic anhydride market "worse".

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From the perspective of production progress, the supply situation in the second half of the year will be more severe. About 300000 tons of production capacity is planned to be put into production in the first half of 2023, and another 1.36 million tons are planned to be put into production in the second half of the year; from the perspective of regional distribution, the supply pressure in East China and surrounding areas is relatively high, and there is no new production capacity expected in South China. 1.65 million tons of production capacity is mainly distributed in Shandong, Liaoning, Henan and other five provinces, of which Liaoning Province accounted for 50.90, Shandong Province accounted for 27.27.

, BDO and other new products put into production in the first year of the

, the downstream development is increasingly diversified.

the
in addition to the traditional downstream products unsaturated resin, 2023 maleic anhydride downstream areas will also usher in the maleic anhydride method BDO with the release of new product capacity, especially the integration of projects into the, maleic anhydride products from the amount will be significantly increased, maleic anhydride industry pattern shaping will also begin.

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However, although the production of downstream products of maleic anhydride in 2023 is also planned, it is still insufficient compared with the production of the supply side. The increase in the amount of maleic anhydride can only be manufactured in southern China and cannot effectively alleviate the overall oversupply pressure of the maleic anhydride industry.

of excess pressure to suppress price trends throughout the year price center of gravity or continue to decline

Outlook 2023, due to the recent policy stability continues to strengthen, the real estate market may bottom out and stabilize, unsaturated resin, paint and other downstream product demand is expected to bottom out BDO with the introduction of product production capacity, 2023 domestic consumption of maleic anhydride will be significantly higher than 2022. However, the increase in demand may not fully offset the increase in maleic anhydride supply. It is expected that the oversupply pressure of maleic anhydride will continue in 2023, and the price trend will also focus on the specific changes on the supply side.

Source: of BDO Research

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