[Industry Focus]：Domestic methanol price volatility fell, after the market where to go

, the fluctuation of methanol price in China decreased. It continued to fall in October and methanol prices in the mainland continued to fall in November. This month, production enterprises actively shipped, some areas of freight to maintain a high level. In order to ease inventory pressure, enterprises continue to reduce, promote shipments. The downstream of the terminal continues to purchase on demand, occasionally appropriate to fill positions led to a small rebound in regional prices, but the space and sustainability is not strong, the overall trading activity is not high. As of November 28, the average price in Inner Mongolia was 2296 yuan/ton, down 7.28 percent month-on-month and 7.27 percent year-on-year; the average price in Shandong was 2893 yuan/ton, down 4.14 percent month-on-month and 5.12 percent year-on-year.

Northwest China: The price of methanol in Northwest China has mainly fallen. Among them, the mainstream transaction price of the northern line of Inner Mongolia fell by 40 yuan/ton to 2220-2250 yuan/ton; there was no new price for the mainstream transaction price of the southern line; the mainstream transaction price of northern Shaanxi fell by 5 yuan/ton to 2300-2310 yuan/ton; Guanzhong The mainstream market transaction price fell by 25 yuan/ton to 2450 yuan/ton. At present, the futures market is down and the market atmosphere is light. After the new price of some enterprises is issued, the turnover is general, trade and downstream wait-and-see mainly. It is expected that the recent northwest market may be weak consolidation.

North China: At present, part of the methanol market in North China has been narrow finishing. The price of methanol in Jining City, Shandong Province stabilized to 2730-2740 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of Linfen, Shanxi Province dropped to 2460-2490 yuan/ton. Prices in some areas fell within a narrow range and downstream purchases were mainly on demand. The mainstream transaction price of methanol plants around Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province rose to 2550-2630 yuan/ton. The mainstream price in northern Shandong is 2690-2700 yuan/ton. It is expected that in the short term, the North China market may continue to run in a narrow range.
Central China: At present, the methanol market in Central China is running narrowly. Henan enterprises offer stable. Factory reference 2650-2660 yuan/ton factory cash, Luoyang market negotiation reference 2590-2600 yuan/ton factory cash. Hubei main enterprise offer down, other enterprises offer stable. Factory reference 2665-2750 yuan/ton factory cash exchange; Hunan market negotiation refers to 2830-2850 yuan/ton cash exchange. Expected short-term market or weak finishing run.

East China: At present, the price of methanol in East China has fallen. Taicang early low replenishment demand is good, the base difference is slightly stronger. Compared with other regions, Changzhou price is persistent, the decline is not big, but the domestic delivery advantage is weak. At present, the 1-5 spread in the futures market has weakened rapidly, with the lowest intraday price falling to 93 yuan/ton. It is expected that the East China methanol market may be weak this week, focusing on Lianyungang Shenghong refining production progress on methanol.

South China: At present, the market price of methanol in South China has fallen. The futures market fluctuates after falling. Guangdong market prices fell, early morning holders strong report, most operators wait-and-see, afternoon buy gas slightly improved, low-end buy. Fujian market sporadic small order negotiations, downstream on-demand procurement, operators are cautious. South China methanol market prices are expected to short-term narrow fluctuations.

Southwest China: At present, the methanol market in Southwest China is temporarily stable, Chongqing, the main enterprise in Sichuan and Chongqing, is temporarily stable to 2650 yuan/ton, and the new price in Sichuan has not yet been issued. yungui regional market inquiries, quotations are limited, waiting for factory new price updates. Sichuan Lutianhua methanol plant has been shut down for maintenance as scheduled since November 26. The overall supply in the upstream has decreased slightly, and the downstream mentality is mainly wait-and-see. Southwest methanol market short-term weakness.

supply analysis: At present, the main concern is the change of the load of Southwest Natural Gas Methanol Plant. Jingmen Yingde 500000 tons/year, Cangzhou China Railway 200000 tons/year, Shanxi Tianze 100000 tons/year, Shanxi Jinfeng 100000 tons/year, Anhui Carbon Letter 500000 tons/year, Tongmei Guangfa 600000 tons/year. In addition, we are also concerned about the product situation of Ningxia Kunpeng's new 600000-ton/year plant, and the supply may still be abundant.

Demand Analysis: At present, the demand for dimethyl ether has not changed much. Henan Xinxing Chemical Plan to Reduce Burden, Formaldehyde Demand or Decrease; Pay Attention to the Dynamics of Shanghai Huayi Acetic Acid Plant; Jiujiang Jiuhong is expected to recover, but Ninghua Juhua is expected to stop and chloride demand may decrease. Pay attention to the load changes of MTO equipment in coastal areas such as Jiangsu Sirbang.
cost analysis: Daqin railway capacity gradually recovered, port inventory slightly increased, terminal power plant daily consumption is stable, high inventory, non-power industry demand is poor, terminal wait-and-see sentiment is strong, coal prices may be stable and weak in the short term.

expects domestic methanol prices to continue to be weak and volatile in December. Although some production enterprises have production reduction plans, but by the end of the year, the mainland production enterprises will maintain a low inventory state, active shipment is still the main business direction, the traditional downstream demand is difficult to improve, close to the end of the year, with the weather changes, some traditional downstream is expected to shrink. Considering supply and demand support, mainland methanol prices remained weak in December. Taking into account their own profits, coastal areas are very important MTO plants still plan to stop for maintenance, some factories still plan to stop for maintenance MTO plants are still selling raw material methanol, overall demand is still weak, should be expected to be higher. Is expected in December along the sea methanol prices will be 2650-2800 yuan/ton fluctuations.