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[Industry Focus]：Ethylene glycol to meet a new round of expansion cycle, supply and demand pressure is increasing, ethylene glycol prices are weak.

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Since the start of a new round of ethylene glycol expansion cycle in 2020, the supply capacity and supply capacity of ethylene glycol in China has increased rapidly. After entering 2022, the impact of ethylene glycol expansion on the market price of ethylene glycol began to become more obvious. Due to the steady improvement of the supply capacity of ethylene glycol, the supply and demand structure of the clear indicators of glycol on the market price began to weaken.

glycol prices fell last week. At the beginning of the week, driven by the improvement of macro market sentiment, the commodity market as a whole strengthened, and the price of ethylene glycol rose. However, due to the weak supply and demand structure of ethylene glycol, the load reduction of polyester link led to the continuous decline of ethylene glycol demand support. After the price of ethylene glycol rebounded sharply, the pressure increased, and there was a significant adjustment on Thursday.

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this week Zhangjiagang market spot discount 01 contract 15-20, reported 3795, reported 3790. As of yesterday, Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market closed at 3765-3810.

Supply and Demand Analysis
PTA: As of yesterday's PTA futures main 2301 closing 5140, settlement 5154, down 114, down 2.17, daily increase of 18985 lots. Although crude oil rebounded, but the demand for polyester is not strong, PTA spot base difference is weak, PTA spot prices fell. Traders refer to futures 2301 premium 400-410 self-lifting (including cargo), refer to futures 2301 premium 350 self-lifting. The deal was 5566-5582, with a total of 1000 tons. This week's source trading reference futures 2301 water 400-410 self-lifting, the end of November source trading reference futures 2301 water 355 self-lifting.

Polyester: Polyester started 76.08 per cent as of November 22. On June 15, 2022, Zhejiang Xiaoshan Rongsheng 100000 tons of polyester filament yarn plant shut down for maintenance, restart time to be determined. On June 15, 2022, Jiangsu Shenghong's 200000-ton polyester filament plant was shut down for maintenance, with a restart time to be determined. From September 15, 2022, a polyester staple fiber factory in Jiangsu will reduce production by 400 tons/day, and the restart time will be determined. On September 20, 2022, Huzhou Zhonglei staple fiber plant production reduction of 500 tons/day, recovery time to be determined. On September 23, 2022, Anhui Jinzhai 100000-ton staple fiber plant was discontinued and is expected to restart in mid-October. Starting from September 27, 2022, the 1.2 million-ton polyester bottle chip device in East China will be inspected in rounds and is expected to continue until around December. On the morning of October 10, the 600000-ton long stop device for Chenggao polyester bottle was restarted, with a current load of 70%. Suqian 250000 tons of polyester filament POY semi-light device, November 11, 2022 feeding, the current normal slice, November 14 included in the polyester production capacity, polyester production base increased to 71.685 million tons. Last weekend, a factory in southern China that produces 2 million tons of polyester bottles a year began round inspections, with a total production capacity of 750000 tons, which is expected to last for about a month.

At present, due to weak demand, ethylene glycol supply and demand structure has not been substantially improved, in the short term, ethylene glycol prices are expected to continue to be weak. At the same time, the impact of the production of new glycol equipment on the supply and demand structure continues to increase. Short-term macro market sentiment has cooled, resulting in a narrowing of the room for a rebound in ethylene glycol prices. The spot price of ethylene glycol is expected to remain weak. It is expected that the ethylene glycol spot negotiation range will remain at 3750-3900 yuan/ton this week.

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