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[Industry Focus]：The price of ethylene glycol is high and low, and the demand is double reduced.

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ethylene glycol prices this high open low go. In early October, affected by the continued strength of crude oil prices during the National Day, the cost of ethylene glycol increased, and the spot market opened higher after the holiday. But then, due to the reduction of ethylene glycol de-stocking, the supply and demand structure gradually weakened, at this stage of the global economic growth slowdown brought about by the emotional suppression of superposition, commodity markets as a whole weakened, ethylene glycol spot prices mainly fell. As of October 28, Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol spot discount 2301 contract 15-20 yuan/ton, price 3825 yuan/ton, delivery 3820 yuan/ton, East China spot market monthly average price 4075.29 yuan/ton, down 4.21 percent from the previous month. The lowest price this month is 3810 yuan/ton and the highest price is 4465 yuan/ton. At the beginning of this month, affected by the downturn in commodity sentiment, the spot market price of ethylene glycol continued to fall, but then some ethylene glycol plants were temporarily suspended for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in ethylene glycol supply. At the same time, due to the improvement of macro market sentiment and the overall rebound in commodity prices, ethylene glycol futures stopped falling, spot market negotiations focus with the same.

the
supply side: it is expected that the overall stability in November, equipment maintenance plan is relatively small, the beginning of November import arrival is relatively concentrated, the overall supply to maintain a high level.

on the
demand side: it is expected that the downstream polyester will remain weak in the later period, and the short-term polyester operating load is difficult to increase.

the

2022. From the perspective of ethylene glycol fundamentals, the production cost of ethylene glycol continued to rise due to the rapid strengthening of crude oil prices at the beginning of the year and the high price of chemical coal; as the ethylene glycol industry entered the expansion cycle After the production capacity continued to rise, the demand performance was poor. In 2022, the ethylene glycol supply and demand structure performed poorly, the cost of ethylene glycol increased, and the downstream transmission was not smooth, resulting in a sharp drop in ethylene glycol profits. Affected by this, the spot market price of ethylene glycol is likely to remain weak in the next three months. From December to January, it is expected that the production of new equipment for ethylene glycol will further increase the supply pressure. It is expected that the operating range of the spot price of ethylene glycol from November to January will remain at 3,700-4,000 yuan/ton, focusing on the impact of the production progress of new ethylene glycol equipment and the direction of crude oil on the ethylene glycol market in the next three months.

Source: Molecular Society

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