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[Industry Focus]：Octanol price volatility adjustment, plasticizer DOP, DOTP, DINP and other prices rise

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Last week, octanol and plasticizer products, which are the main raw materials, fluctuated in a narrow range. As of last Friday, the mainstream quotation in the market was 12650 yuan/ton. The shock of octanol also affected the plasticizer market, DINP took advantage of the rise.

As can be seen from the following figure, the price correlation degree between DOP and DOTP and octanol is relatively high, mainly because the unit consumption of octanol products in the above plasticizer is high, and the price correlation degree with phthalic anhydride and PTA is relatively low, there is also a certain lag.

One of the main reasons for the recent shock is that, octanol supply is expected to tighten, as of May 12, the National octanol industry operating rate was 94.20%, which was at a relatively high level. Among them, Shandong cymbidium ensifolium units have been stopped for a long time since the end of March. Recently, there are new maintenance plans in northeast and east China, in June, octanol supply will be affected for a period of time. Secondly, the price of octanol basically refers to the auction price of a factory in Shandong, the octanol market has a good trading atmosphere and the factory has bullish expectations., the auction price increased by 200 yuan/ton, driving the mainstream price higher. In addition, at present, octanol factories carry out more contracts, and the enthusiasm of downstream and middlemen to pick up goods will also increase under the circumstance that the price on the day is lower than the monthly settlement price.

It is expected that the plasticizer market will continue to maintain a volatile trend in late May, ranging from 200 to 400 yuan/ton.

First, supply surface: At present, the overall operating load of plasticizer devices is not high, most of them are maintained at medium load, and some devices are phased out of production or overhaul, but the overall supply of plasticizer is still relatively abundant, and the inventory of enterprise products is not low.

Second, demand surface: according to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, the total retail sales of social consumer goods decreased by 11.1% year-on-year in April, 2022, and decreased by 3.5 percent year-on-year in March and April, which were negative, mainly affected by the national epidemic. On May 17, 16 districts in Shanghai had already cleared the social surface, the epidemic ushered in an inflection point, and the social production and living order was gradually restored. From a long-term perspective, it may have a positive boost to the plasticizer industry chain..

Third, message face: affected by the regional situation, the probability of maintaining the international oil price near US $100-110/barrel is high, which plays an important role in supporting the price of chemical products at the bottom.

Fourth, raw material surface: the prices of octanol and phthalic anhydride are easy to rise and fall. The profit margin of long-term extrusion plasticizer factory also has obvious supporting effect on the price of plasticizer.

On the whole, due to the lack of strong buying support in the market, the plasticizer industry chain has been changing in a short period since the middle of March. Whether it is rising or falling, the duration is relatively short, after Shanghai is gradually unsealed, the social mobility in East China will be greatly improved. In addition, under the double blessing of supply and demand and profit, it is estimated that the short-term market is prone to rise and fall, and the length of time that the price can continue depends on whether the delayed demand in the early stage can be finally released.

Source: Baichuan Yingfu and Zhuochuang Information

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