[Industry Focus]：The polyester industry chain is experiencing a "dark" moment, and the price continues to fall, paying for the early overdraft!

recently, the chemical fiber industry due to the development of power restrictions in various places, bulk textile raw materials are also due to coal price fluctuations and other reasons, so that raw material manufacturers complain incessantly, downstream polyester factories are even more difficult. Multiple factors, polyester raw materials fell to heartbreak, chemical fiber people see heart tired!

the collapse of crude oil has once again clouded the polyester market!

but never thought that recently, the new crown epidemic in Europe has continued to worsen and market concerns about the European blockade have intensified. The collapse of crude oil has once again clouded the polyester market! On the 18th, crude oil prices began to fall sharply. WTI crude oil prices fell to 78.36 US dollars/barrel, down -2.40 US dollars/barrel. This is also the first time in the past three weeks that WTI crude oil fell out of the 80 US dollars/barrel mark. On the evening of the 20th, the crude oil market plunged again, closing in the early morning, WTI January crude oil futures closed down $2.47, or 3.15%, at $75.94 per barrel, while Brent January crude oil futures closed down $2.35, or 2.89%, at $78.89 per barrel.

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plunge not only shocked many market participants, but also surprised some industry people who had expectations of oil prices. It makes the polyester industry chain worse again.

The polyester industry chain is experiencing a "dark" moment due to the fall of the price rise altar.

Since 10 month, under the oversupply fundamentals, polyester market prices have continued to fall.

on November 17, PTA price was 4936 yuan/ton and ethylene glycol price was 4965 yuan/ton, down 10.49% and 34.38% from the high in mid-October.

but also miserable polyester filament, according to monitoring, 150D FDY, 150D The prices of POY and 150D DTY were 7980 yuan/ton, 7780 yuan/ton and 9450 yuan/ton respectively, down 1120 yuan/ton, 1220 yuan/ton and 1200 yuan/ton respectively from mid-October, down 12%, 14% and 11%.

According to the above situation, it can be seen that the biggest drop is ethylene glycol, with a drop of 34.38%,PTA by 16.45%, and the rest of the raw material prices also showed a significant downward trend. Compared with the continuous rise in raw material prices after September last year, the increase of nearly 50%, this year's polyester raw materials have come out of the price rise altar.

The difficulty of terminal orders has improved recently The polyester industry chain has become more difficult to remove the database.

At the same time, both the terminal weaving enterprise inventory and the polyester factory inventory have recently increased significantly, indicating that the industrial chain is more difficult to go to the warehouse, and the corresponding enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials will be seriously insufficient. At present, Christmas, "Double Twelve" and other orders have been basically completed. The current polyester terminal enterprises are to meet just need production, the market lack of enthusiasm for hoarding goods, especially in the context of fiscal policy tightening and overlay the epidemic prevention and control, the recent terminal orders are difficult to improve.

limited power and terminal orders limited impact, the polyester industry as a whole start-up load is lower than the same period in previous years. As of November 12, the start-up loads of polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester filaments, polyester industrial filaments and polyester staple fiber industries were 84.69%, 74.22%, 77.59%, 63.8% and 77.21%, respectively. The overall inventory of polyester products increased slightly compared with last year, and the destocking pressure of polyester enterprises was neutral. As of November 11, polyester filament FDY inventory was 26.8 days, up 5 days from the same period last year, up 28.57% year-on-year; polyester filament POY inventory was 18.8 days, up 0.8 days from the same period last year, up 4.44% year-on-year.

current point of view, into the winter, the terminal weaving industry to the winter stocking season, the start load has seasonal recovery demand, and with the steady increase in power supply, polyester enterprise start load also has a certain rise in expectations. However, the "double control" of energy consumption in East China is still continuing, and the operating load of terminal weaving and bomb adding enterprises is lower than that of the same period in previous years. At the same time, most weaving enterprises' orders can only be maintained until the end of November or the beginning of December, and only a small number of orders can be extended until next spring.

I hope that the last wave of this year's market will overdraw the future market and eventually pay for the overdraft

Although the prices of many domestic raw materials have declined to varying degrees, many polyester enterprises are still at a loss. Some weaving enterprises said that the biggest problem facing enterprises is that the market demand continues to be weak, and it is useless to reduce the price of raw materials without orders. The short-term upstream demand ultimately depends on the terminal market changes, according to the law of previous years, in the early Spring Festival, there will be a market, especially at this point in time, foreign trade orders should also usher in a market, but now there are overseas epidemics, containers difficult to grab, and 32 countries to cancel the inclusive policy of China, foreign trade market prospects are uncertain, if the market before the end of this year can not come as scheduled, then it is not easy to reduce the inventory when the production is limited will be high again, and the market will once again fall into a vicious circle.

From the national industrial structure adjustment, whether it is the polyester market, raw material market or end users, are in a serious surplus stage, we have overdrawn the future market, and ultimately have to pay for the overdraft.

Source: Futures Daily, China Chemical Industry News, Chemical Fiber Headline