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[Industry Focus]：Ranina extreme weather is coming again! Oil price broke through the $80 mark, and chemical products rose sharply.

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Oil prices break through the $80 mark, chemicals surge across the board

In addition to the global shortage of coal, the "king of commodities" crude oil also rose sharply under the expectation of tight supply and economic recovery. You know, in April last year, oil was once reduced to negative oil prices, so much as to block pipelines, and there was no place to store cruise ships loaded at sea.

on October 8, WTI oil prices broke the $80 mark for the first time in seven years. On October 11, WTI oil prices rose more than 3% to $82, a new high. It is worth noting that international oil prices have risen for seven consecutive weeks. Superimposed on the shortage of coal, the energy crisis sweeping the world is increasing the northern hemisphere's wintering difficulties.

, driven by the sharp rise in crude oil, on October 11, domestic chemical products rose sharply across the board, with strong trading limits such as methanol and PVC, and LPG, PTA and EG rose sharply one after another. Up to now, the prices of PVC, PP, EB, plastic and other chemicals are all above 10000 yuan, setting a new historical record. Even the price of methanol broke through the 4000 yuan mark, reaching a new high since its listing. A year ago, the price of methanol was less than 2000 yuan.

Deutsche Bank commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch report said: "given the current strong demand, and may also be driven by natural gas buyers to oil, coupled with OPEC + production restrictions policy, so until the end of the year, the oil market will remain tight."

CITIC Securities FICC chief analyst Ming Ming also pointed out that the market is increasingly worried about the global energy crisis. Specifically, in the context of the transformation of the global energy structure, the energy crisis mainly revolves around traditional fossil energy, including oil, natural gas and coal. Rising prices of energy products have caused global power supply shortages, industrial production is under pressure, and high electricity prices and shortages of natural gas and gasoline have also disrupted residents' lives. It is expected that the high prices of major energy products will be difficult to change in the short term. A new round of global inflation is coming, and my country's inflationary pressures cannot be ignored.

Abnormal weather may aggravate commodity volatility

it is worth noting that while the supply of resource goods is short, weather changes may aggravate the fluctuation of commodity prices. Cai Yongzheng pointed out that the global temperature in summer is on the high side, consuming a lot of energy, and this winter is likely to usher in La Nina.

CICC also issued a document saying that in August 2021, NOAA announced that the La Nina phenomenon showed signs of another performance, and the climate was about to reverse again. The abnormal phenomena of global precipitation and temperature caused by La Nina weather have different impacts on different industries/industries. The cold weather that La Nina climate may cause may benefit energy, coal, textile, chemical fiber and other related industrial chains, exacerbating market concerns about winter energy shortages, and to a certain extent pushing up natural gas, heating oil, coal, cotton textiles and other bulk commodity prices.

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