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[Market information]：The off-season is not light! Phenol July market bucked the trend, the market trend?

Read： 686 Time：5months ago Source：Baichuan Yingfu

Prices firm against the backdrop of the 1. off-season

in July, although the downstream industry of phenol generally entered the off-season of traditional consumption, and the price of raw material pure benzene dropped significantly by about 750-800 yuan/ton, phenol Market Price however, it showed extraordinary toughness, stable in the range of 8050-8200 yuan/ton, and broke through the average price suppression on July 18, and the price of East China wharf climbed to 8300 yuan/ton.

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2. cross-overhauling support for the market

the phenol market is able to be independent of raw material trends, mainly due to the cross-repair arrangements of several large phenol and ketone plants in the industry. Many factories in Shanghai, Shandong and other places have successively carried out parking maintenance, especially the two phenol ketone factories in Shanghai with a total production capacity of 960000 tons, and the factories in Qingdao and Yantai in Shandong, which directly reduced the supply of phenol in the market. In addition, although the maintenance plan of enterprises in Jiangsu is not directly reflected in the spot sales in July, it has had an impact on market expectations. This series of maintenance actions affected the total market circulation of phenol by about 25200 tons. In addition, the domestic export volume of phenol increased in July, further reducing the domestic circulation volume by 31200 tons, resulting in a tight market supply and a long-term low terminal inventory.

3. new capacity on-line and supply structure changes

it is worth noting that the commissioning of the new phenol ketone plant in Northeast China in May 2024 opened up the entire production line of the phenol ketone-bisphenol A- PC, significantly reducing the external sales of phenol, a change that will affect the supply and demand balance of the phenol market in the long run. The launch of new production capacity has not only changed the market supply structure, but also intensified the market's attention to the future supply pattern.

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4. Outlook and Maintenance Impact

looking forward to August, the overhaul tide of the phenolic ketone industry will continue, especially the two large factories in the northeast region, whose overhaul plans will further tighten the market supply. At the same time, BPA, as one of the main downstream of phenol, is expected to increase its supply and some plant restart plans, and it is necessary to be alert to the possible negative feedback effects of the imbalance between supply and demand. Therefore, the industry operating pressure and device operation stability will become the focus of attention of the market.

5. Phenol Price Forecast

based on the fundamental advantages of the current phenol market, including tight supply, low inventory and upcoming delivery of shipping orders, phenol prices have further upward momentum. Especially considering the short-term supply interruption caused by the steam stop at the terminal in Jiangyin area, it is expected that the shipment price of phenol port in East China will remain in the range of 8300-8450 yuan/ton next week.

Source: Baichuan Yingfu

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