Since the middle of April, due to the impact of the epidemic, the market supply and demand are weak, the inventory pressure of enterprises has been rising, the market price has been declining, profits have been continuously squeezed, and even the cost price has been touched. After entering May, the overall acetic acid market began to bottom out and rebound, reversing the situation that has been declining for two weeks since the middle of April.
As of May 18, the market conditions are as follows: the mainstream market in East China is 4800-4900 yuan/ton, up 1100 yuan/ton from the end of April; the mainstream market in south China was 4,600-4,700 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan/ton from the end of last month; the mainstream market in North China was 4800-4850 yuan/ton, up 1150 yuan/ton from the end of last month. In the middle of May, the domestic acetic acid market rose rapidly after a slight adjustment. There are many shutdown devices at home and abroad, and the inventory of acetic acid has also dropped to a low level. Most manufacturers of acetic acid offer high prices and firm prices. Traders in Jiangsu have some resistance to high-priced raw materials, and their purchasing willingness is not good, which leads to a loose price.
Supply side: The start-up of domestic and foreign enterprises has dropped by 8 million tons.
According to market data, recently domestic and foreign markets have accumulated 8 million tons of production capacity devices in the state of shutdown and maintenance, and the market inventory has been greatly reduced.
Judging from the current situation of enterprise maintenance, in late May, the 1.2 million-ton capacity of Nanjing celannis and the 1 million-ton capacity devices of Shandong yancon will also be shut down for maintenance one after another, involving a total shutdown capacity of 2.2 million tons. Overall, the supply pressure of acetic acid increases, which forms effective support for the acetic acid market.
In addition, due to the interruption of the supply of raw materials, two large acetic acid units in Celanese and inius in the United States were forcibly stopped, and the supply shortage in the United States was expected to increase. The industry believes that at present, FOB China and FOB us Gulf price difference calculation is conducive to domestic acetic acid exports, and will plus-sized the export volume in the near future.. At present, the resumption time of American devices is still unclear, and the domestic market mentality is also Lido.
Due to the decline in the operating rate of domestic acetic acid plants, the overall inventory of domestic large acetic acid enterprises has also dropped to a low level. Due to the impact of the epidemic in Shanghai, the inventory situation in East China has dropped sharply compared with that in April. Recently, the epidemic has improved and the inventory has increased.
Demand side: downstream start-up drops, slow acetic acid up!
Judging from the start-up of the downstream market of acetic acid, the current start-up of PTA, butyl acetate and chloroacetic acid has improved compared with the previous stage, while ethyl acetate and vinyl acetate have decreased.
Overall, acetic acid demand end the operating rates of PTA, vinyl acetate and chloroacetic acid are close to or higher than 60%, while other operating conditions are at a low level. Under the current epidemic situation, the overall construction situation of the downstream market of acetic acid is still relatively slow, which brings hidden dangers to the market to a certain extent and is not conducive to the continuous surge of the acetic acid market.
Acetic acid bottomed out to rebound 20%, and the future trend or rush is limited!
Summary of Recent acetic acid market news1. The start-up situation of acetic acid plant, the current start-up of domestic acetic acid plant is about 70%, and the operating rate is about 10% lower than that of the middle and late April. Some areas in East China and North China have maintenance plans. Nanjing yinglishi device will stop from March 23 to May 20; Hebei Jiantao coking started to plan maintenance for 10 days on May 5. Foreign plants, Celanese, Leander and Eastman in the Americas are irresistible to stop work, and the resumption time is uncertain.2. In terms of output, statistics show that the acetic acid output in April was 770,100 tons, down 6.03% month on month, and the cumulative output in January-April reached 3.1915 million tons, up 21.75% year on year.3. In terms of exports, customs data show that in March 2022, the total export volume of domestic acetic acid was 117,900 tons, foreign exchange earned by exports was 71.0707 million US dollars, the average monthly export price was 602.7 US dollars/ton, and exports increased by 106.55% year-on-year, exports increased by 83.27%. From January to March, the total export volume was 252,400 tons, a significant increase of about 90% over the same period last year. In addition to the sharp increase in the number of exports to India this year, the number of exports to Europe has also increased significantly.
4. In terms of downstream start-up of acetic acid, the recent high operation rate of vinyl acetate is close to 80%, an increase of 10% compared with the end of last month. The operating rate of butyl acetate also increased by 30%, but the total operating rate was still at a low level below 30%; In addition, the operating rate of ethyl acetate was also at a low level around 33%.5. In April, the shipment of large acetic acid enterprises in East China was greatly impacted by the epidemic in Shanghai, and the waterway and land transportation army were not smooth. However, as the epidemic eased, the shipment situation gradually improved in early May, and the inventory dropped to a low level, enterprise prices rise.6. Recently, the inventory quantity of domestic acetic acid manufacturers is about 140,000 tons, down 30% from the end of April, and the inventory of acetic acid in this period continues to decline. According to the above data, the operating rate of domestic and foreign devices decreased significantly in May compared with that at the end of April. The downstream demand of acetic acid increased while the inventory of enterprises decreased to a low level. The imbalance between supply and demand is the main factor that the price of acetic acid bottomed out and rebounded by more than 20% in May after falling to the cost line.
As the price of this round has rebounded to a high level, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement has been suppressed. It is expected that the overall domestic acetic acid market will continue to increase in the short term, and more will remain high and volatile, in the later period, we will continue to pay attention to the changes of the epidemic and the start-up of the device.
Source: Guangzhou chemical trading center* Disclaimer: the content contained is from public channels such as the Internet and WeChat public accounts. We maintain a neutral attitude towards the views in this article. This article is for reference and communication only. The copyright of the reprinted manuscript belongs to the original author and organization. If there is any infringement, please contact Huanyi world customer service to delete it.
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