[Market information]：Analysis on the current situation, competition pattern and future development of MIBK industry in China

1. Output

in terms of output, the output of MIBK in China increased year by year from 2015 to 2019. In 2016, the output exceeded 50,000 tons, and in 2018, the output exceeded 80,000 tons. In 2020, affected by the epidemic, the output decreased to 80,000 tons, A year-on-year decrease of 7%.

Output and growth rate of MIBK in China from 2015 to 2020

source: Public Data arrangement

2. Import and export

as the largest consumer of MIBK in the world, China is a net importer of MIBK. In recent years, the import volume of MIBK in China has shown a downward trend, but the overall decline rate is relatively moderate. Although China began to levy anti-dumping duties in 2018, foreign sources of goods

the cost advantage is still obvious, and there is still some arbitrage space to enter the domestic market. According to statistics, the import volume of MIBK in our country was 12,800 tons from January to July 2021, down 14.89% year-on-year, and the export volume was 900 tons, up 10.48% year-on-year.

Statistics on MIBK import and export volume in China from July 2015 to 2021

source: China Customs, China economic Industry Research Institute

in terms of import and export amount, according to statistics, the import amount of MIBK in our country was 27.9278 million US dollars from January to July 2021, up 116.82% year-on-year, and the export amount was 2.1861 million US dollars, up 153.24% year-on-year.

Statistics of MIBK import and export amount in China from July 2015 to 2021

source: China Customs, China economic Industry Research Institute

3. Apparent Consumption

in 2020, the apparent consumption of MIBK in China was about 104,900 tons, down 12% compared with the year-on-year period in 2019. Except for the impact of the epidemic in 2020 and the impact of Sino-US trade friction in 2019, the apparent consumption of MIBK decreased, from 2015 to 2018, the overall consumption of domestic MIBK market maintained an upward trend.

Apparent consumption and growth rate of MIBK in China from 2015 to 2020

source: Public Data arrangement

by 2020, there were 5 domestic production enterprises of methyl isobutyl ketone (MIBK) with a total capacity of 110,000 tons. Acetone is used for one-step production. Among them, Zhenjiang Li Changrong plant ranks first in China with a scale of 50,000 tons/year. Influenced by market and technical factors, Taizhou Petrochemical and MIBK plant of Zhejiang Xinhua Chemical Company have been shut down and are not included in the total production capacity.

Main domestic MIBK production enterprises in 2020

source: Public Data arrangement

methyl isobutyl (methyl) ketone (MIBK) is a transparent liquid, which is mainly used as a solvent for painting, Nitro fiber, some fiber ethers, camphor, grease, natural and synthetic rubber.

In 2020, the consumption structure of domestic MIBK market was still dominated by rubber anti-aging agents, accounting for more than 50%, and 4020 manufacturers of anti-aging agents were still large users of MIBK. Paint consumption accounts for 14%, in addition, adhesive, extraction, deep processing and other applications account for the same proportion.

In 2017-2021, domestic MIBK fell first and then rose, with the highest point appearing in May 2021and the lowest point appearing in July 2019. In 2021, MIBK's market focus remained high. The average annual price of MIBK in East China was 20211.8 yuan/ton, up 44.73% year on year. Among them, the lowest monthly average price was 13741.3 yuan/ton, which appeared in December and the highest price was 24907.89 yuan/ton, which appeared in May and was the highest point in the same period in the past five years. The logic of MIBK price formation in 2021 is mainly caused by the combined effect of demand and supply. The increase of anti-aging agent demand is the first factor affecting the price change throughout the year.

Source: Public Data arrangement

1, judging from the domestic MIBK output and import volume, the overall supply is larger than the domestic market demand. However, the cost of foreign import supply is relatively low, and the import supply has a certain impact on the domestic market, which limits the operating rate of domestic devices. Therefore, the competition of MIBK in the future mainly focuses on product quality, production cost and price.

2, domestic MIBK enterprises are mainly distributed in the eastern coastal areas and depend on Major acetone production enterprises or major import acetone distribution centers. Moreover, the downstream cycle of MIBK in China is relatively strong, and the consumption during the peak period of tire production in the first and third quarters of each year is relatively large. It is suggested that the newly-built devices in China should form an integrated operation mode of upstream and downstream of raw material supply and downstream consumption in a certain area or park to resist the impact of foreign NIBK products on the domestic market.

3, MIBK is a deep processing product with small volume of acetone downstream, and the whole industry chain of MIBK is in the direction of the whole chemical chain. The continuous growth of domestic MIBK industry chain has encountered a bottleneck period. On the one hand, the de-production capacity has made downstream industries begin to concentrate on enterprises above scale; At the same time, with the rise of emerging manufacturing countries such as Southeast Asia and India, Global Coatings, adhesive and other MIBK downstream orders began to be transferred from China to the Southeast Asia and India markets. On the other hand, MIBK downstream lacks the highlight of demand growth.

4, it is suggested that relevant domestic enterprises and scientific research institutions accelerate the application and expansion of MIBK in fields other than rubber anti-aging agents and coatings, such as paying attention to the market development of plant-derived biomedicine and pesticide extraction, etc., to promote the steady growth of MIBK consumption and the sustainable development of the industry in China.