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[Market information]：Acrylic nitrile market: short-term stalemate, lack of motivation for fundamental promotion

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Since the end of February, the center of gravity of the domestic acrylonitrile market has moved up, and the low price in the market has decreased. Affected by the rising costs, the factory's willingness to push up has increased, but this increase has not lasted for too long, so that the factory is still in the profit and loss line, the market is once again in a stalemate state, the fundamentals push up the power is insufficient, and the spot price range is sorted out. By the close of the 16th, acrylic nitrile market in East China port area had been out of the tank to discuss about 11700-11900 yuan/ton.

丙烯腈市场趋势图.jpg

Data source: Jin Lianchuang

cost: affected by the rise of crude oil and the relative shortage of supply, the price of propylene in East China experienced a period of rapid rise from the end of February to the beginning of March, the price once rushed from 7950 yuan/ton to around 9100 yuan/ton. However, this week, the domestic propylene market continued to fall. International crude oil continues to plummet, polypropylene futures are difficult to change, powder is weak, and fundamental changes are not big. Recently, the supply side continues to pick up, while the prevention and control of local epidemics has upgraded. The supply and demand pattern is slightly loose, the market shipping pressure is not reduced, and the trading atmosphere is general. As of Thursday, transactions in Shandong were concentrated at 7950-8000 yuan/ton, while transactions in East China market were concentrated at 8300-8400 yuan/ton. Even if the price of propylene drops sharply, acrylonitrile still hovers at the edge of the cost line.

Supply: both Secco and Haijiang have maintenance plans this month, but Tianchen Qixiang started feeding production this week, and the maintenance planned by koruer in Late months has also been delayed. Although the physical inventory of the factory continues to grow, but it also did not plus-sized the pressure of the reservoir. Therefore, there is no great influence before Qi Xiang produces qualified products.

Requirements: at present, domestic ABS factories are operating around 93%. Although some areas are affected by the epidemic, the transportation is limited, but the shipping can still be shipped normally. In terms of acrylic fiber, affected by the epidemic, the production of some acrylic fiber factories was affected, and the supply was reduced. The factory operating rate was lower than that of the previous period, and now it has been started around 64%, but the demand has also decreased, downstream users have no intention to stock up. Acrylamide started at 70%, and the price trend was weak and stable.

To sum up, the game between the cost side and the supply and demand side is slightly fixed. Acrylic nitrile manufacturers have a high cost, and the loss of price reduction and shipment has expanded. The willingness is not high. The Factory wants to continue to push up, but the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, the demand is low, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the new device is put into operation, and the epidemic is repeated, suppressing the rising mood of acrylonitrile spot market. Short-term or continuous cold demand, supply manufacturers inventory pressure short-term difficult to reduce, fundamental fluctuation is not big. The short-term acrylonitrile market is expected to be deadlocked, focusing on the operation of new devices and the fulfillment of factory overhaul.

Source: JIN Lianchuang

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