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[Market information]：Soda Ash Market Analysis: The trading atmosphere is flat, the downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and the Soda Ash Market price remains stable in the short term

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Market conditions

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this week, the domestic Soda Ash Market has been running steadily and slightly, and the overall market has not changed much. However, the trading atmosphere has weakened, the market supply and demand game, and the downstream procurement is not good, which has conflict psychology on high-priced soda ash. Soda ash manufacturers have strong willingness to stand the price. It is comprehensively expected that soda ash will be stable and small, depending on the downstream market demand. At present, the mainstream price of domestic light alkali is 2600-2800 yuan/ton, and the price of heavy alkali is 290-3000 yuan/ton. At present, the soda ash plant is running normally, with high start and sufficient supply; The downstream demand for soda ash is relatively flat, and there is a certain resistance to high-priced soda ash, and more purchases are maintained on demand. The amount of new orders signed by soda ash manufacturers is limited, and the shipment is normal. The supply-demand game continues. It is expected that the soda ash market will maintain a stable trend in the near future.

Operation rate analysis

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in the last month, the domestic soda ash operating rate has increased by 4.53%, an increase of 5.44%. In terms of device dynamics: the maintenance of the first phase of the Central Plains chemical unit is expected to end today, and the daily output has increased; The maintenance time of Hubei Shuanghuan coal gasification unit is delayed until March 11; The construction of the Jingshen device gradually returns to normal level; the rest of the devices operate normally, and the daily output fluctuates little.

Inventory Analysis

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last week, the number of domestic soda ash manufacturers was about 125-1.26 million tons (including some manufacturers' ports and external warehouse stocks), a decrease of 6.1 percent from the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 22.5%. Among them, the heavy alkali inventory is 71-720,000 tons (including some manufacturers' port and external warehouse inventory), with high inventory concentration, and the inventory is mainly concentrated in northwest, north China and East China. Although the starting load of the industry has increased, the manufacturers still have the support of pending orders, and the inventory of most manufacturers has declined.

Last week, the weighted average starting load of soda ash manufacturers was 83.1%, up 2.9 percent age points from the previous week. Among them, the weighted average of ammonia and alkali manufacturers starts 85.2%, the weighted average of combined alkali manufacturers starts 80.1%, and the weighted average of natural alkali plants starts 93 percent. Last week, the output of soda ash manufacturers was about 552,000 tons.

Quotation of domestic mainstream enterprises

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this week, the factory quotation of domestic soda ash was largely stable, and the negotiation space for some manufacturers to light alkali new orders increased slightly. The trading atmosphere of soda ash market is flat, the downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, the delivery of enterprises is general, and the Soda Ash Market price remains stable in the short term.

Analysis of Market Influencing factors

cost: this week, the domestic raw salt plant was stable as a whole, and the plant started smoothly, with little change in the start-up of manufacturers in various regions. Sea salt runs stably, with better performance in well rock salt and stable price. Lake Salt performs well, downstream demand is maintained, and market stability is maintained. At present, high-quality sea salt leaves the factory at about 510-610 yuan/ton, with a low price of 510-520 yuan/ton and a high price of 580-610 yuan/ton. The output of well rock salt is stable, and the current quotation is about 530 yuan/ton; The current quotation of lake salt is stable at 510 yuan/ton. At present, the supply and demand of raw salt market is stable, and the trading atmosphere continues to the previous level, which is neutral to the Soda Ash Market.

Supply: soda ash manufacturers have few maintenance devices, the overall start-up remains high, the daily output is stable, and the market supply performance is abundant. The downstream demand is average, and the purchase just needs to be maintained. It is resistant to high-priced soda ash, and it is cautious to wait and see. It is expected that the domestic Soda Ash Market will maintain stable operation in the near future.

Requirements: the overall demand performance is flat. The downstream market of light alkali is weak, and more purchases are maintained on demand, and the demand for soda ash is insufficient; The downstream glass enterprises of heavy alkali are resistant to high-priced soda ash, and they are more cautious to wait and see the market, the enthusiasm for getting goods is not high. In the later period, the market still needs to pay attention to the price trend of upstream and downstream, the output and operating rate of the enterprise, the market environment, the weather and so on will affect the price trend. The short-term Soda Ash Market will continue to remain stable, and the future needs to be observed.

Source: Guangzhou chemical trading center

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