the central bank cut interest rates by 10 basis points much more than expected

on January 17, the People's Bank of China announced that in order to maintain a reasonable abundance of liquidity in the banking system, the day to carry out 700 billion yuan of medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations and 100 billion yuan of open market reverse repurchase operations. The winning interest rates for the medium-term lending facility (MLF) operation and the open market reverse repo operation both fell by 10 basis points to 2.85% and 2.10%, respectively. After the "interest rate cut", the 7-day reverse repo rate fell to 2.1% and the 1-year MLF rate fell to 2.85%, which was the first reduction in the policy rate since the 7-day reverse repo rate was lowered in March 202020and the 1-year MLF rate was lowered in April.

Since the one-year LPR rate cut in mid-December 2021, the market has also created a vision for a cut in the MLF rate. The 10 basis point reduction is also beyond the market's expectation that there may be only a 5 basis point reduction.

For the central bank's "interest rate cut", the economic data for December 2021 released on Monday showed that the downward pressure on real estate is still large, and the decline in consumption is also more obvious. An important part of stable growth is to stabilize real estate. The reduction of MLF interest rate also opens up space for the possible downward movement of 5-year LPR interest rate in the later period. However, it should be noted that the stability of real estate is only stability, the general direction of housing and not speculation has not changed. In December 2021, C PI and PPI both fell, and the scissors gap between the two narrowed, the future price decline or CPI will not exceed 3%, that is, inflation on the policy constraints are limited. This cut in the MLF interest rate opened the way to "cut interest rates", with reference to the interbank certificate of deposit interest rate prices, the future or at least three more "cut interest rates" space (to 10 basis points each time to calculate).

GDP 114 trillion in 2021! Growth over the previous year 8.1%

The National Bureau of Statistics released data on the 17th. According to preliminary calculations, China's GDP in 2021 was 114,367 billion yuan, at constant prices, an increase of 8.1% over the previous year, with an average growth of 5.1% in two years. In 2021, the per capita disposable income of residents in China was 35128 yuan. After deducting the real growth 8.1% of price factors, the growth of residents' income and economic growth were basically synchronized.

In addition, in December 2021, the main energy products of industries above designated size, except for the year-on-year decline in power generation, coal, oil, and gas all increased to varying degrees. In 2021, the production of raw coal, crude oil and electricity accelerated over the previous year, and the growth rate of natural gas production slowed down.

raw coal, raw coal production continued to accelerate, imports from the increase to the decline. For the whole year of 2021, 4.07 billion tons of raw coal were produced, an increase of 4.7% over the previous year, an increase of 5.6% over 2019, and an average increase of 2.8% over the two years; 0.32 billion tons of imported coal were produced, an increase of 6.6% over the previous year.

crude oil, crude oil production growth rate fell slightly, processing volume from increase to decrease. For the whole year of 2021, 198.98 million tons of crude oil were produced, an increase of 2.4% over the previous year, an increase of 4.0% over 2019, and an average increase of 2.0% over the two-year period; 703.55 million tons of processed crude oil, an increase of 4.3% over the previous year, an increase of 7.4% over 2019, and an average increase of 3.6% over the two-year period.

crude oil imports from down to up, international crude oil prices rose. In December 2021, imported crude oil was 46.14 million tons, up 19.9% year-on-year, down 8.0% last month, and in 2021, imported crude oil was 512.98 million tons, down 5.4% from the previous year. On December 31, 2021, the spot FOB price of Brent crude oil was US $77.24/barrel, up 9.0% from US $70.86/barrel on November 30.

black series collective heavy decline double coke decline of the top

as of Monday afternoon close, black series multi-species intraday heavy decline, double coke decline of the top, including coke main contract closed down 5.86%, coking coal main contract closed down 4.06%.

Guosheng Futures Black Department researcher Wang Ying believes that infrastructure demand ahead of schedule, concentrated release to support the strong spot while pushing up market trading expectations, coupled with the disk 2205 contract in the discount pattern there is a buy hedging advantage, the recent black performance of the strong. But with the rise of the disk, the 2205 contract basis has been repaired to less than 2%, while infrastructure demand through winter storage, lock-up and other ways to release a batch, disk and spot has been through the rise to cash this logic.

, some market participants believe that the current dual focus fundamentals are temporarily stable and do not have the basis for a sharp decline. In the later period, they will continue to pay attention to the impact of the Spring Festival. At present, the third round of coke price rise has been fully landed, some areas of coke enterprises put forward the fourth round of rise, coke enterprises inventory continued to be low, the market expectations are better. Although there is a certain resistance in steel mills, but due to concerns about the impact of the outbreak, there is still a certain need for replenishment.

However, Zhang Yuan, a senior researcher at Yide Futures Coal and Coke, holds a different view on the future. Zhang Yuan believes that from a seasonal point of view, most of the post-holiday coal coke will have some room to fall. If coking coal is expected to fall by 500 yuan/ton after the holiday and coke will fall by 3 rounds for a total of 600 yuan/ton, then the cost of coke corresponding warehouse receipts will fall back to around 2800-2900 yuan/ton, while the cost of coking coal warehouse receipts will fall back to around 2200 yuan/ton. Therefore, after the sharp drop in coal coke on Monday, the expected decline after the holiday has been fully reflected, and the lower support may be strengthened. However, before the festival, the rebound logic is not sufficient for the time being, and we can continue to pay attention to the supply and demand situation and expected changes at the end of the material. In addition, the market's expectation of the resumption of iron and water production after the festival still exists, in the long run, coal coke still exists to go to the library expectations.

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