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[Industry Reports]：Acetone: the recent shock is relatively strong, which is good and exciting. It is more likely to be strong in the future.

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This year, the domestic acetone market is in a downturn, and the overall trend of low volatility is maintained. Traders also have a headache for this suffering Market. However, the market volatility range is gradually shrinking, and a convergence triangle appears in the technical form, if we can break through the volatile area, it will indicate that the market will break the current balance and a wave of market conditions will appear.

Data source: Jin Lianchuang

since this year, although the market remained low, but the overall trend showed strong volatility., especially after each fall, the market has strong support, and the market low point has risen from the previous low point. Take the East China market as an example, the lowest point in last June was 4875 yuan/ton, the lowest point in last December was 5100 yuan/ton, and the lowest point in April this year was 5350 yuan/ton, which means that there is a strong buying support after the market drops to 5,000 yuan/ton, and the market is slowly picking up.

Recently, the market has a trend of rising again, which is about to break through the pressure level of convergence triangle upper rail. Jin Lianchuang believes that acetone is more likely to break through upward, and the long market consolidation time indicates that both sides are evenly matched, waiting for good news to stimulate.

Based on the fundamentals of acetone, there are a lot of positive results.:

i. During the maintenance of Yangzhou Shiyou 320,000 tons/year phenol ketone device, the enterprise mainly goes to inventory and is expected to restart in early June. Second, the epidemic situation in Shanghai has been alleviated, external shipments have gradually recovered, and downstream demand will increase.

Third, the raw material Pure benzene is strong, the cost support is good, the price difference between pure benzene and acetone is large, which indirectly benefits acetone. In addition, phenol ketone enterprises have fallen into losses. If they continue to lose money, the factory may take measures to reduce the negative effect slightly.

Fourth, the port inventory gradually decreased. In April, the Jiangyin port inventory was on the upper level of 50,000 tons. At present, the acetone inventory is 37,000 tons, which has been reduced from the previous high inventory to a reasonable level.

V. The cost of imported goods is relatively high, and the price of imported goods itself is slightly higher than that of the domestic market. In addition, the recent rapid rise of the US dollar exchange rate further increases the cost of imported goods.

To sum up, acetone is likely to be stronger in the future., although the demand is relatively weak, with the improvement of the epidemic, there is still room for improvement. Acetone is in the low price range, and merchants have limited intention to make profits, it is expected that if the acetone market rises rapidly, it will lead to a wave of profit-making, and it may be confirmed again. If the market grows steadily and slowly, it will continue the trend of strong shocks.

Source: JIN Lianchuang

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