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[Industry Reports]：Domestic acetone market rose and fell sharply, short-term weak adjustment, pay attention to downstream production capacity and epidemic policy

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Since the beginning of 3 months, the domestic spot price of acetone has risen sharply and fallen sharply. In early March, due to the continuous fermentation caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the international crude oil price rose to a high point in recent years on March 8. Driven by this, pure benzene and propylene rose sharply, rising feed stock cost, supporting the continuous rise of acetone prices in early March, up to 6300 yuan/ton.

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However, from the middle and late March, the international crude oil price gradually declined, driving the propylene price down. At the same time, a new epidemic broke out in Shanghai, and all districts began to be closed. Under the continuous influence of the epidemic, the radiation and influence of the surrounding cities gradually increased. Due to the epidemic traffic control, logistics and transportation are affected, and the operating rate of downstream industries decreases, further depressing the price of acetone, as of April 22, the price of acetone dropped to 5620 yuan/ton.

In terms of acetone supply, the start-up of each device is relatively stable., only the 400,000 tons/year phenol ketone device in Sanjing, Shanghai dropped to 60%, but due to the impact of the epidemic, the logistics transportation in East China continued to be unsmooth, the transportation cycle was lengthened, and the freight increased, it has a great influence on the raw material procurement and product export of phenol ketone factory, and has certain support for the market price.

It is reported that due to the planned overhaul of several sets of phenol ketone devices in China from May to September, the acetone contract and spot supply will be tightened at that time, or the domestic market will be further supported.

Recent maintenance plan of phenol ketone factory in east China

in terms of demand, since the epidemic situation in Shanghai intensified on March 27, the construction of phenol A and MMA units in East China have been affected and began to decline. The MMA device of Shanghai Roma 100,000 tons/year dropped to 70% at the end of March due to the shortage of raw material supply and limited logistics; The load of a MMA device in East China region affected by the epidemic dropped to 50%; sinopec Sanjing (Shanghai Caojing) 120,000 tons/year of phenol a plant was reduced by 15% to 85% due to the epidemic on March 14.

Since no new downstream capacity is available in the short term, market participants pay more attention to the start-up of the equipment recently put into operation., especially the second phase MMA unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company, its operation will affect the supply and demand of acetone.

Acetone is mainly vulnerable in the short term., the domestic acetone market is linked to the epidemic development in East China. The situation that epidemic prevention leads to the lengthening of transportation cycle and the tightening of transportation capacity is still OR continues. Under the circumstances that freight increases and delivery is difficult, downstream factories also choose to wait and see the market. Changes in epidemic situation and response policies may directly affect the trend of acetone market.

Source: CIS anxun si, Business Club

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