On November 30, the technological transformation project of the 600000-ton/year propylene oxide project of China Chemical Tianchen Quanzhou ushered in a key milestone. The last static equipment reboiler of the project was successfully hoisted. The equipment weighs 196.69 tons and has a hoisting height of 31.5 meters. It was jointly completed by the main crane of 650 tons crawler crane and the 500 tons truck crane with the tail walking. At the same time, the frequency conversion cabinet for electrical equipment is also successfully installed in place. The frequency conversion cabinet weighs 14.84 tons and needs to be installed in the 10KV substation in operation. After communication and discussion by technicians, it finally slides to the installation position through the track. So far, the hoisting and installation of large-scale equipment in the project has been successful.
Tianchen 600000 tons/year propylene oxide project the first phase of the 600000-ton/year propylene oxide project of Sinochem Tianchen Quanzhou New Materials Co., Ltd. was officially launched on July 12, 2022, the civil construction safety was realized on November 30 of the same year, and the important node of large-scale hoisting was realized on May 19, 2023, and was fully delivered on October 18, successfully completing the construction task. The 600000-ton/year propylene oxide project was constructed by Sinochem Tianchen Quanzhou New Materials Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of China Tianchen Engineering Co., Ltd., with a total area of more than 1000 mu and a total investment of 7.38 billion yuan. The project is located in Nanshan area of Quangang Petrochemical Park. The total construction period of the project is 36 months, using HPPO process. The annual production project is implemented in two phases: the first phase of the construction of 1 × 300000 tons/year hydrogen peroxide propylene oxide plant, 2 × 450000 tons/year 27.5% hydrogen peroxide plant (supporting 1 × 450000 tons/year 50% hydrogen peroxide concentration process), while supporting the construction of raw materials and finished product tank group, air separation compressor, freezing station, loading and unloading pallet, circulating water station, condensate refining system, accident pool, total transformer and device substation, electromechanical instrument maintenance, chemical warehouse, torch, incineration, sewage station and other public auxiliary projects; phase II construction of 1 × 300000 tons/year hydrogen peroxide propylene oxide plant, 2 × 450000 tons/year hydrogen peroxide plant (supporting 1 × 450000 tons/year 50% hydrogen peroxide concentration process), while supporting the construction of public works and environmental protection projects. Analysis of Epoxy Resin Market Trend
1. price trends: North-South market differences are evident
in November, the market price of propylene oxide showed obvious regional differences. The Shandong market took the lead in refreshing the annual price low, and then prices rebounded slightly at the end of the month under the influence of downstream companies to replenish stocks. In contrast, in East China, due to the maintenance of two sets of large-scale propylene oxide units of 400000 tons/year, the price has been able to maintain relatively high fluctuations. However, entering December, the market is expected to continue to hit new annual price lows in the North and South markets.
Changes in the volume of 2. commodities: the trend of increasing in the south and decreasing in the north is obvious.
In terms of commodity volume, the production capacity of propylene oxide in East China has increased significantly, and the propylene oxide units of Taixing Yida, Satellite Chemical, Yangnong Ruiheng and other enterprises have been put into operation, with a total increase of 950000 tons/year. Although Zhejiang Petrochemical Plant is shut down for maintenance, it has no plan to extract propylene oxide externally, so the in stock transaction pressure in East China is gradually increasing. In Shandong, although Xinyue, Lihua Yiweiyuan and other enterprises to reduce the negative lead to a slight decrease in in stock supply, but the subsequent Binhua Phase II, Wanhua Penglai Phase I plant is expected to have no direct impact on the volume of goods, more in the mentality of a negative impact. It is estimated that the total output of propylene oxide in December will reach about 490000 tons, an increase of 25000 tons from November. The supply pressure in East China is significantly greater than that in Shandong, and there may be a backflow of in stock to Shandong.
3. demand analysis: continue to shrink
in terms of demand, the main downstream polyether and chemical downstream propylene glycol are in the off-season demand, domestic trade demand follow-up is weak. With the arrival of December as the closing month of the year, some manufacturers and trade customers will increase their willingness to return funds, so domestic trade demand is expected to show volatility, a small amount of just need to replenish, but the support is weak. In terms of exports, affected by Trump's coming to power and his high tariff policy, the number of downstream products exported to the United States and related countries will be restricted, and exports are expected to show a downward trend. On the whole, domestic trade is under pressure and exports are not satisfactory. Demand is expected to continue to shrink compared with November.
4. multi-process loss normalization
in terms of cost pressure, process losses such as PO/SM and HPPO are not new, and even the chlorohydrin process, which is recognized as a lower cost, has been in a state of theoretical cost inversion for a long time in the fourth quarter. According to statistics, the theoretical profit of the chlorohydrin process in Shandong in November was -251 yuan/ton, which continued to decline by 100 yuan/ton from October. Epoxy propane multi-process profit loss makes the factory under obvious pressure, facing the dilemma of "not selling tired warehouse, selling at a loss. Although multi-process costs continue to be under pressure, it is difficult to change the weak situation of epoxy propane supply and demand, only in part of the time to form a support effect on the bottom of the price, can not drive the price of epoxy propane in the raw material price rise rebound.
5. Future Outlook
to sum up, in the short term, with the price of propylene oxide in the north and south hitting the annual low, the overall shipment has rebounded. It is expected that the price will gradually stabilize and wait for the follow-up of downstream orders. However, in the medium and long term, if propylene oxide manufacturers still do not take measures to limit production and protect prices, supply will continue to remain relatively high, which will test the downstream digestion capacity in the off-season of demand. It is expected that the price of propylene oxide will remain low in December, with limited space up and down. Holders recommend back-to-back shipments, with the return of funds at the end of the year.
Source: Surfactant Development Center, Jinlianchuang, Huayi World.
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