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Propylene Oxide Market Analysis
High concentration of 2. production capacity, leading enterprises in a significant position
about 61.3 per cent of global PO capacity is concentrated in the top 10 producers. As the world's largest producer of propylene oxide, Dow Chemical has a significant market share and influence. Leander Basel Industrie and Shell followed in second and third place respectively. This high degree of capacity concentration indicates that the leaders of the PO industry dominate the market and have an important influence on market dynamics and price trends.
3. rapid growth of China's PO capacity
it is estimated that by 2025, China's new propylene oxide production capacity will reach 4.09 million tons/year, and the total production capacity will exceed the 10 million tons/year mark. In 2023, China's PO production capacity will continue to grow, with new production capacity reaching 1.218 million tons/year and total production capacity reaching 6.12 million tons/year, up 24.85 year-on-year. This rapid growth reflects that China's PO industry is in a period of concentrated expansion, which has a profound impact on the global PO market structure.
4. new process dominates new capacity
judging from the new installations during the year, the HPPO process became the mainstream, with a production capacity of 700000 tons/year, accounting for 57.47 per cent. Compared with the traditional chlorohydrin method, the new process PO unit has larger capacity and higher efficiency. In the new production capacity, Tianjin Petrochemical, Shandong Sanyue and Zhejiang Petrochemical and other three enterprises have supporting downstream equipment, in addition to their own use, there is still a large sales volume, further promoting the increase in the volume of goods in the market.
5. chlorohydrin method faces phase-out challenge
with the implementation of the latest "Industrial Structure Adjustment Catalogue" issued by the state in 2024, the chlorohydrin method has been listed as a process technology for elimination. This means that there will be no new devices for the chlorohydrin process in the future, further accelerating the promotion and application of the new process. This policy orientation will have a profound impact on the capacity structure and market structure of the PO industry.
6. capacity continues to expand in the future, the market faces challenges
in 2024, the overall trend of concentrated capacity expansion of domestic PO will continue, capacity utilization may continue to decline, and the market will face greater challenges. According to statistics, in the second half of 2024, it is estimated that there will still be 840000 tons/year of new PO production capacity, mainly concentrated in Shandong and East China. By then, the total domestic PO capacity will be expanded to 8.06 million tons/year. Although the new capacity continues to increase, but more supporting mainly, coupled with the simultaneous construction of downstream capacity, market supply and demand or maintain a relative balance.
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