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[Industry Focus]：Analysis of Phenolic Ketone Market Fluctuation: October Fluctuation, Where to Go in November?

Read： 253 Time：2months ago Source：Baichuan Yingfu

Analysis of Phenol Market Fluctuation in October 1.

In October, the phenol market was affected by the concentration of imports, and the price fluctuated significantly. After the National Day holiday, the industry actively delivered shipments, resulting in East China ports. Phenol Price from 8600 yuan/ton before the festival, it dropped rapidly to 7550 yuan/ton. However, due to a slight delay in imports and a variety of factors such as the concentration of empty delivery contracts, the price of phenol gradually rebounded to 7750 yuan/ton. But the good times did not last long. After the end of the filling, the price of pure benzene collapsed and the price of phenol fell again.

Propone Market Performance in October 2.

Compared with phenol, the market performance of acetone in October was fair. After the rapid decline in July-August, acetone was consolidated in September-October, and the terminal inventory was effectively digested, falling to about 20000 tons. At the same time, due to the limited sale of factory in stock in October and the delay in the delivery of terminal contracts, acetone price exploratory impact 6000 yuan/ton. However, due to the lack of terminal buying follow-up, prices eventually fell back.

Change and Yield Forecast of Phenolic Ketone Plant in November 3.

In November, the phenolic ketone device changed frequently. Shandong has shut down a total of 700000 tons of phenol and ketone plants for 7-10 days for maintenance, while the new 250000 tons of plants will produce qualified products for sale in early November. Shanghai's 400000-ton phenol ketone plant will be stopped for maintenance from November 19 to November 28, and the supporting bisphenol A also has a maintenance plan. Guangdong's 300000-ton phenol and ketone plant will not be started in November, while a 480000-ton phenol and ketone plant in Jiangsu is planned to be started in mid-November. Although there was new capacity in November, domestic overhauls co-existed, hedging the production of new capacity. It is estimated that phenol output in November will be 450000 tons, down 26300 tons from October. Acetone production was 281000 tons, down 15600 tons from October.

4. import volume and supply side analysis

at present, the specific import volume is not clear, but according to previous data, the import volume of phenol is temporarily predicted at 25000 tons and acetone is predicted at 30000 tons, which is at the previous average level. There is a decreasing trend on the supply side. However, the main downstream bisphenol A and the bisphenol A plant for external phenol extraction have also been overhauled. It is estimated that the output of bisphenol A in November will be 326000 tons, 39300 tons less than that in October. This resulted in a decrease of 7100 tons of phenol and 5800 tons of acetone from the phenol ketone plant.

5. market impact and price forecast

phenol acetone supply end slightly reduced, but the impact on the market is limited. In November, the main focus was on cost-side drag. At present, the phenol ketone plant is running slightly, the integrated plant remains profitable, and it is difficult to reduce production centrally. However, BPA is currently losing money and is tiring, so we need to keep an eye on whether there is negative feedback. Phenolic resin industry is in the off-season, it is difficult to have incremental. Therefore, the overall trend of phenol is weak, but the exploration space is limited. There is a possibility of inertia decline in the near future, and the price of phenol in East China port is forecast at 7250-7650 yuan/tonne. The lack of acetone is driven by a surge. In early November, 10,000 tons of acetone still arrived at the port. Although most of them are owned by the terminal, the terminal inventory is still reflected. Short-term acetone prices are expected to be in the 5800-6100 yuan/ton range finishing.

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