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[Industry Focus]：Acrylonitrile price shocks down, when can the imbalance between supply and demand be solved?

Read： 277 Time：2months ago Source：Jinlianchuang subscription number Cui Beibei

1. market supply and demand status: sufficient supply, weak demand

in October, the acrylonitrile market expected limited supply improvement, but demand remained weak. Since August, domestic acrylonitrile plant units have generally fallen negative, and the operating rate has dropped to 63.38 percent. Although the production volume in August increased by 20000 tons compared with the same period last year, the manufacturers still have sufficient goods in their hands. At the same time, although the profitability of downstream ABS manufacturers has improved, but the plant to enhance the start-up load is limited, some new devices to improve the negative than expected, resulting in limited overall demand. As a result, the market presents a situation of adequate supply and insufficient demand, acrylonitrile price insufficient upward momentum.

2023-2024年国内丙烯腈市场价格走势图.jpg

2. South-North Market Price Difference and Its Impact

at present, the market price difference between the north and the south of acrylonitrile still exists. Many sets of acrylonitrile plants in the south are in a state of production reduction or maintenance, and the supply is tightened, so the manufacturers are firm in the offer. In contrast, the northern region is basically running at full capacity, with greater shipping pressure and a continuous downward movement in the center of gravity. With the continuous restart of the pre-maintenance devices, the on-site supply will further increase, the southern price will also be dragged down by the northern market, and the transaction center will then decline.

3. East China Market Supply Pattern and Expectation

in the future, the supply pattern of acrylonitrile market in East China will remain tight. The shutdown of a PDH unit in Jiangsu and the negative operation of an MTO unit in Nanjing have led to the small circulation of propylene in stock in East China. Despite the downstream demand gap, but the inquiry and real order follow-up atmosphere is OK, the short-term East China market is expected to be stable and strong. However, the current market price of synthetic ammonia is moving closer to the low level again, and the inventory pressure of some ammonia enterprises is gradually increasing. It is expected that the market will continue to be weak before the downstream demand in many places is recovered.

4. downstream market demand changes

downstream ABS market, after the National Day holiday, manufacturers and the market more than a tired library phenomenon. At the same time, the second production line of Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II gradually realized mass production, Jilin Petrochemical plant restarted, Zhangjiagang Shengxi Ao ABS plant also restarted, but the overall demand increased. Limited. On the other hand, in the acrylic fiber market, Ningbo Zhongxin, Hangzhou Bay, Jilin Chemical Fiber and other sets of equipment were stopped for maintenance, resulting in a substantial reduction in demand.

5. market outlook: weak shocks dominated

on the whole, the market price difference between the north and the south of acrylonitrile will continue to exist in the short term. However, in the case of continued weak downstream demand, transaction prices in East China will also be dragged down. However, considering the large losses in the acrylonitrile industry, the room for decline is limited. On the whole, the short-term acrylonitrile market will be dominated by weak shocks. Future market trends still need to pay close attention to changes in supply and demand, device maintenance and downstream demand recovery.

Source: Jin Lianchuang Subscription Number Cui Beibei

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