[Industry Focus]：Epoxy resin market after the National Day, the price rise can be sustained?

after the National Day holiday, raw materials bisphenol A Price it remained firm and showed an upward trend. At the same time, the price of epichlorohydrin rose to the range of 8900-9000 yuan/ton. This change has directly led to a significant increase in the cost pressure of epoxy resin companies. Under the pressure of cost, epoxy resin price it also strengthens daily. However, despite the price increase, the actual operating conditions of epoxy resin companies have not improved.

Specifically, some epichlorohydrin factories have recently stopped for some reasons, involving an annual output of 250000 tons, accounting for about 12% of the country's effective production capacity. This reduction in the supply side gives epichlorohydrin companies an opportunity to raise prices, pushing the price up to 8900-9000 yuan/ton. The price fluctuation of bisphenol A, another raw material, is relatively small, and the price in East China is maintained at about 9700 yuan/ton. The cumulative increase in the cost end reached 450-500 yuan/ton, which directly led to an increase in the price of liquid epoxy resin in East China by 450 yuan/ton to around 13350 yuan/ton.

However, downstream demand did not improve as a result of higher prices. After the festival, most of the downstream enterprises purchase according to the production schedule, and the demand for epoxy resin is relatively limited. The in stock supply of goods holders is also relatively tight, but the push-up sentiment still exists. The field is mainly dominated by the delivery of long-term orders, with few new orders traded. Epoxy resin enterprises in the quotation is more cautious, more according to the cost situation, and back-to-back contact with new orders.

from the perspective of raw materials, there is still room for the fall of raw material phenol next week, which will adversely affect the cost support of bisphenol A. At the same time, despite the abundant supply of bisphenol A, the lack of expectations of increased demand has led to a lack of positive factors in the bisphenol A market. However, due to the industry is still a loss, bisphenol A prices are expected to show a narrow negative trend.

For epichlorohydrin, the production start of the enterprise next week is not much change. Parking maintenance enterprises plan to resume production at the end of the month, the market as a whole in stock supply performance is tight. Enterprises deliver more contract orders, shipping pressure is not great. Terminal enterprises on the epoxy chloropropane procurement sentiment is moderate, the market transaction atmosphere is weak and stable. Therefore, it is expected that the market price of epichlorohydrin will be strong next week.

From the perspective of supply and demand, the supply fluctuation of epoxy resin market next week is not expected to be obvious. There is a maintenance plan for some units on the site, and some units that have been shut down are planned to be restarted. The starting load of the remaining enterprises is kept at a low level. This makes the market relatively limited in stock supply.

The wait-and-see sentiment of downstream enterprises continues to exist and will continue to maintain the on-demand procurement strategy. The demand for epoxy resin is relatively limited and it is difficult to see significant growth. On the whole, the demand of downstream enterprises is difficult to change, procurement will mainly maintain the main demand.

Epoxy resin enterprises in the face of cost pressure, push up the strong will, do not want to low-cost shipments. The price of epoxy chloropropane, the superposition raw material, has an upward trend, and the market price of epoxy resin is expected to rise in the short term. Specifically, the price of epoxy resin liquid is expected to be between 13400-13700 yuan/ton, and the price of epoxy resin solid is expected to be between 13200-13500 yuan/ton. However, still need to pay close attention to the changes in the upstream and downstream market.

in summary, after the National Day holiday, the rise in raw material prices has led to an increase in the cost pressure of epoxy resin companies, which in turn has promoted the rise in epoxy resin prices. However, the downstream demand has not improved, so that the actual operation of epoxy resin enterprises has not improved. Next week, the price of raw material bisphenol A is expected to fall in a narrow range, while the price of epichlorohydrin is likely to run strongly. In the case of a relative balance between supply and demand, the market price of epoxy resin is expected to rise, but we still need to pay attention to the changes in the upstream and downstream market and the start of the enterprise.