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[Industry Focus]：Bisphenol A market "golden nine" is not gold, the fourth quarter can usher in a turnaround?

Read： 503 Time：1months ago Source：Baichuan Yingfu

1. Market Price Fluctuations and Trends

in the third quarter of 2024, the domestic market of bisphenol A experienced frequent ups and downs in the range, and finally showed a negative trend. Market this quarter bisphenol A Average Price it was 9889 yuan/ton, up 1.93 from the previous month to 187 yuan/ton. This fluctuation is mainly due to the weak demand in the traditional off-season (July and August) and the increase in phased parking and maintenance in the downstream epoxy resin industry, resulting in limited market demand and manufacturers facing the problem of taking goods. Despite the high cost, the industry's losses have intensified, the supply side has limited room for profit, and the market price fluctuates frequently in the range of 9800-10000 yuan/ton in East China. Entering the "Golden Nine", the reduction of maintenance and the increase of supply have further aggravated the situation of oversupply in the market. Despite the cost support, the price of bisphenol A is still difficult to stabilize, and the phenomenon of sluggish peak season is obvious.

双酚A市场价格.jpg

2. Capacity Expansion and Production Growth

in the third quarter, the domestic production capacity of bisphenol A reached 5.835 million tons, an increase of 240000 tons from the second quarter, mainly from the commissioning of the second phase of the Huizhou plant in South China. In terms of output, the output in the third quarter was 971900 tons, up 7.12 from the previous quarter to 64600 tons. This growth trend is benefited from the dual role of the new plant put into operation and the reduction of plant maintenance, and the domestic production of bisphenol A continues to rise.

2024年1月至9月我国双酚A月度产量变化.jpg

3. downstream industry started to improve

although no new production capacity was put into operation in the third quarter, the operating load of the downstream PC industry and the epoxy resin industry increased. The average operating load of the PC industry was 78.47 per cent, up 3.59 per cent from the previous month, while the average operating load of the epoxy industry was 53.95 per cent, up 3.91 per cent from the previous month. This shows that the demand for bisphenol A in the two downstream industries has increased, and the market price has formed a certain support.

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4. Cost Pressure Intensified and Industry Losses

in the third quarter, the theoretical average cost of bisphenol A industry rose to 11078 yuan/ton, up 3.44 from the previous quarter, mainly affected by the rising price of raw material phenol. However, the average profit of the industry fell to -1138 yuan/ton, down 7.88 from the previous month, indicating that the cost pressure of the industry was huge and the loss situation further deteriorated. Although the decline in the price of raw material acetone has been hedged, the overall cost side is still not conducive to industry profitability.

2023-2024年双酚A行业理论成本毛利走势图.jpg

Market forecast for the fourth quarter of 5.

1) Cost-side outlook

it is expected that in the fourth quarter, phenol ketone factory maintenance is less, superimposed on the import of goods to Hong Kong, phenol market supply will increase, prices may fall. Acetone market due to abundant supply, prices or will be adjusted to the low range. Changes in the supply side of phenolic ketones will dominate the market trend and put pressure on the cost side of bisphenol A.

2) Supply-side forecasts
in the fourth quarter, there were few maintenance plans for domestic bisphenol A plants, and only a few maintenance arrangements were made in Changshu and Ningbo. At the same time, the new production capacity in Shandong is expected to be released, and the supply of bisphenol A is expected to remain abundant in the fourth quarter.

3) Demand-side outlook
downstream industry maintenance operations decreased, but the epoxy resin industry is affected by the contradiction between supply and demand, the start is expected to remain at a low level. Although the PC industry is expected to put new units into production, it is necessary to pay attention to the actual production progress and the impact of the maintenance plan on the start-up load. Overall, it is difficult for downstream demand to grow significantly in the fourth quarter.

Comprehensive cost side, supply side and demand side analysis, it is expected that the fourth quarter bisphenol A market will be weak operation. Cost support weakens, supply expectations increase, and downstream demand is unlikely to improve significantly, and industry losses are likely to continue or even intensify. Therefore, it is necessary to pay close attention to unplanned negative reduction and maintenance operations in the industry to deal with potential market volatility risks.

Source: Baichuan Yingfu

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