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[Industry Focus]：Adipic Acid Market Warming? New Trend of Market under Supply and Demand Pattern

Read： 491 Time：2months ago Source：Zhuo Chuang Information

1. supply and demand fundamentals turn strong power analysis.

Recently, the supply and demand pattern of adipic acid market is gradually undergoing positive changes. The continued profit of raw material pure benzene provides decompression space for the cost end of the acid, while the seasonal recovery in the consumer market is obvious, indicating that the market supply and demand fundamentals are expected to usher in a strong momentum. This change is not only reflected in the reduction of raw material costs, but also in the gradual release of downstream demand, which has injected new vitality into the market.

2. Price Movements and Stage Rebound Expectations

in early September, the adipic acid market in the supply and demand pattern and the overall impact of weak consumption, showing a downward trend of shock. However, as prices gradually bottomed out, the market began to focus on the stage rebound opportunities that may be triggered by low valuations. Although the situation of weak macro guidance and weak domestic demand in the early stage has eased, the room for price increases is still limited by the large supply and demand pattern. Therefore, the future trend of the market needs to pay close attention to the macro news guidance and downstream users in the low price environment of the volume changes.

2022-2024年己二酸市场价格走势变化图.jpg

The logic of rigid demand trading under weak 3. supply and demand

at present, the adipic acid market presents a weak supply and demand situation, trading to just demand-based. Domestic supply is low, but short-term demand is less than expected, resulting in relatively cold market transactions. However, from a medium-term perspective, although the overall supply and demand pattern is still weak, but the downstream of the acid such as PBAT and other areas of production expectations, and its own supply increment is limited, which will support the price to maintain a range of consolidation to a certain extent. At the same time, the relative improvement of demand in the traditional peak season has also brought a touch of warmth to the market.

2022-2024年己二酸价格与利润变化对比园.jpg

4. profit constraints and the challenge of cost pricing logic

the adipic acid industry has been in a loss-making state for a long time, and the price has fallen below the industry-wide cost line for a long time, seriously deviating from the cost pricing logic. Although foreign trade orders for end-demand such as clothing and footwear have improved slightly, and some pre-parking enterprises have resumed production, most of the downstream users still maintain a steady demand for procurement, which has not effectively boosted the market. In addition, although there are many holiday factors, but did not lead to a large area of centralized stocking phenomenon, each link by controlling the start to maintain inventory flexibility. In this context, the pressure on the spread of acid benzene is obvious, industry profits continue to be limited, the future need to pay attention to whether there is a plan for maintenance and terminal start-up load changes.

2023-2024年己二酸月度产量变化图.jpg

5. Future Market Forecast and Strategic Suggestions

to sum up, during the period from September to December, the price of adipic acid is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level, but the probability of a sharp rise is not high. Although domestic macro factors are still uncertain, their impact on the market is relatively limited. Therefore, the prediction of adipic acid market should mainly return to the analysis of supply and demand pattern. With the continuous profit of raw material pure benzene and the end of the off-season of consumption, the market supply and demand fundamentals are expected to gradually strengthen, providing certain benefits for price performance. However, affected by the weak recovery of terminal demand, the upside of adipic acid may be relatively limited.

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