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[Industry Focus]：MIBK market is cold, prices plunge 30%! Industry winter under supply and demand imbalance?

Read： 464 Time：2months ago Source：Baichuan Yingfu

Market round-up: MIBK market into a cold period, prices fell sharply.

Recently, MIBK (methyl isobutyl ketone) market trading atmosphere significantly turned cold, especially since July 15, East China MIBK Market Price the decline continued, from the original 15250 yuan/ton to the current 10300 yuan/ton, with a cumulative decline of 4950 yuan/ton, or 32.46 per cent. This sharp price fluctuation reflects the profound changes in the relationship between supply and demand in the market, indicating that the industry is undergoing a profound adjustment.

2023-2024年MIBK市场价格走势图.jpg

Reversal of the supply and demand pattern: oversupply at the peak of production expansion

in 2024, as the peak period of production expansion in the MIBK industry, the market supply capacity increased significantly, while the growth of downstream demand failed to keep up in time, resulting in the overall supply and demand pattern shifting to oversupply. In the face of this situation, high-cost enterprises in the industry have to take the initiative to reduce prices in order to reconcile the market supply pattern and reduce inventory pressure. However, even so, there are no obvious signs of recovery in the market.

Weak downstream demand and weakened raw material cost support

in September, the demand situation of the downstream industry has not improved significantly. Most downstream enterprises only purchase raw materials according to the production progress, and lack positive replenishment power. At the same time, the price of acetone, the main raw material of MIBK, has also continued to decline. At present, the price of acetone in the East China market has fallen below the 6000 yuan/ton mark, hovering around 5800 yuan/ton. The decline in raw material costs should have provided some cost support, but in the oversupply market environment, MIBK prices fell more than the decline in raw material costs, further compressing the profit margins of enterprises.

Market sentiment is cautious, holding the goods firm price wait-and-see.

Affected by the dual impact of sluggish downstream demand and lower raw material costs, downstream enterprises have a strong wait-and-see mood and are not active in entering the market. Although the inventory of some traders is at a low level, in view of the uncertain market prospect, they have no intention to replenish their stocks for the time being, so they choose to wait for the right time to operate. In terms of cargo holders, they generally adopt a stable price strategy, relying on long-term agreement orders to maintain shipments, in stock market transactions are more fragmented.

Plant condition analysis: stable start-up, but maintenance plan affects supply

as of September 4, the effective production capacity of the national MIBK industry is 210000 tons, and the current operating capacity has reached 210000 tons, and the operating rate has remained at about 55%. It is worth noting that 50000 tons of equipment in the industry are planned to stop for maintenance in September, which will affect the market supply to a certain extent. However, on the whole, considering the stable start-up of other enterprise installations, the MIBK market supply is still relatively limited, and it is difficult to quickly change the current supply and demand pattern.

Cost-profit analysis: profit margins continue to compress.

In the context of the low price of raw material acetone, although the cost of MIBK enterprises has been reduced to a certain extent, but affected by the relationship between supply and demand, the price of MIBK market has fallen even more, resulting in the continuous compression of corporate profit margins. Up to now, MIBK's profit has been reduced to 269 yuan/ton, and the profit pressure of the industry has increased significantly.

2023-2024年MIBK成本利润.jpg

After the market outlook: prices or continue to be weak downward.

Looking ahead, the price of raw material acetone still has downside risks in the short term, while the demand of downstream enterprises is difficult to grow significantly, and the willingness to purchase MIBK will continue to be depressed. In this context, cargo holders will mainly rely on long-term agreement orders to maintain shipments, and in stock market transactions are expected to remain sluggish. Therefore, it is expected that the MIBK market price will continue to decline weakly in the late September, and the mainstream negotiation price range in East China may fall between 9900-10200 yuan/ton.

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