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[Industry Focus]：Acrylic and Ester Market August Revisited: Mixed, How Is the Market?

Read： 301 Time：2weeks ago Source：Baichuan Yingfu

Summary of 1. Market Price

this month (from August 1 to August 28, 2024), the market price of acrylic acid as a whole showed a downward trend. The average market price in mainstream areas was about 6300 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton from last month, a drop of 2.32. The price of acrylic acid in various regions is generally lowered, mainly affected by weak demand, and enterprises adjust their quotations with the market. Acrylate market performance is different, methyl acrylate first rose and then fell, butyl acrylate and isooctyl acrylate continued to decline, ethyl acrylate is to maintain a stable and weak trend.

2. market price analysis of specific products

methyl acrylate: The average market price was 8350 yuan/ton, up 500 yuan/ton or 6.37 from the previous month. In the first half of the year, the supply was reduced and prices rose due to the maintenance of the device. After the middle of the year, the device resumed, the supply increased, and the focus of market negotiations declined slightly.
Ethyl acrylate: The average market price was 9500 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton or 2.06 from the previous month. The overall supply and demand of the market did not change much, and the price remained deadlocked and weak.
Butyl acrylate: The average market price was 8600 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan/ton or 5.49 from the previous month. Prices continued to decline due to falling raw material prices and weak downstream demand.
Isooctyl acrylate: The average market price was 9750 yuan/ton, down 1100 yuan/ton or 11.36 from the previous month. The price of raw material octanol fell sharply, directly dragging down the market performance of isooctyl acrylate.

3. cost surface analysis

this month, the domestic propylene market price was affected by the geographical situation and demand concerns, the initial weak shock, although there is a slight rebound in the later period, but the overall trend is still downward. The prices of methanol, butanol, octanol and other raw materials also generally fell, of which the methanol market first suppressed and then rose, while the prices of butanol and octanol fell sharply due to weak demand and the impact of new production capacity. Adverse changes in cost have put pressure on the acrylic and acrylate markets.

4. Supply and Demand Analysis

on the supply side: the overall operating rate remained at about 70% this month, and the supply was relatively abundant. Some acrylic and acrylic devices returned to normal after a short stop, and the market supply was stable.
Demand: insufficient downstream demand, tape master roll and other downstream products market price center of gravity down, capacity utilization narrowed, the demand for acrylic and acrylic products support weakened.

5. market forecast

cost side: International crude oil prices are expected to remain range-bound in September, and propylene market prices may first decline and then rise. The supply of octanol market is relatively large, but the price is close to the cost line, and the fluctuation space is limited; the supply of n-butanol market is sufficient, and the demand in the traditional peak season may increase, but the overall trend is still declining.
Supply and demand side: Jiangsu a factory acrylic acid and acrylic butyl ester device maintenance, short-term favorable market supply. However, the downstream tape master roll and acrylic emulsion market demand is weak, capacity utilization remains low.
Comprehensive forecast: It is expected that the price of butyl acrylate will fall slightly in the short term after finishing operation, the price range or 8550-8900 yuan/ton. With the arrival of the peak demand season in September, the market prices of acrylic acid and acrylic esters may pick up somewhat, and the market price range of acrylic acid is expected to fluctuate around 6300-6700 yuan/ton. The ethyl acrylate market is expected to remain stable, while methyl acrylate may fluctuate periodically due to plant maintenance.

Source: Baichuan Yingfu

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