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[Industry Focus]：Analysis of MMA Industry Chain Capacity, Demand and Competition Pattern

Read： 311 Time：3months ago Source：Baichuan Yingfu

1. MMA production capacity continues to increase

in recent years, China's MMA (methyl methacrylate) production capacity has shown a significant increasing trend, from 1.1 million tons in 2018 to 2.615 million tons at present, a growth rate of nearly 2.4 times. This rapid growth is mainly due to the rapid development of the domestic chemical industry and the expansion of market demand. In particular, in 2022, the growth rate of domestic MMA production capacity reached 35.24, and six units were put into production during the year, further promoting the rapid growth of production capacity.

2018-2024.7月国内MMMA新增产能统计.jpg

2. two kinds of process capacity growth rate difference analysis

in terms of the production process, there is a significant difference in capacity growth between the ACH method (acetone cyanohydrin method) and the C4 method (isobutylene oxidation method). The growth rate of ACH method capacity shows an increasing trend, while the growth rate of C4 method capacity shows a decreasing trend. This difference is mainly due to cost factors. Since 2021, C4 MMA production profits have continued to decline and will suffer serious losses in 2022-2023, with an average annual profit loss of more than 2000 yuan per ton. This directly inhibits the production schedule of the C4 process MMA. In contrast, the profit of MMA production by ACH method is still good, and the upstream acrylonitrile production increases, which provides sufficient raw material guarantee for ACH method, so the MMA put into production in recent years mostly adopts ACH method.

3. upstream and downstream supporting situation analysis

among the MMA production enterprises, the ACH method accounts for a relatively high proportion of 13 enterprises, while the C4 method has 7 enterprises. Judging from the supporting downstream situation, only 5 enterprises produce PMMA, accounting for 25%. This shows that the current MMA production enterprises, downstream supporting is not perfect, the future with the extension and integration of the industrial chain, supporting the number of downstream production enterprises is expected to increase.

2024年至7月份我国MMA生产企业及上下游配套情况.jpg

4. ACH method and C4 method supporting upstream situation

in the ACH MMA production enterprises, the proportion of enterprises equipped with upstream acetone plant accounted for 30.77, while the proportion of enterprises equipped with upstream acrylonitrile plant accounted for up to 69.23. Since the hydrocyanic acid in the raw material for ACH production mainly comes from the re-production of acrylonitrile, the start-up of MMA in the ACH process is mostly affected by the start-up of the supporting acrylonitrile plant, while the cost situation is mostly affected by the price of raw material acetone. In contrast, 57.14 percent of C4 MMA producers are equipped with upstream isobutylene/tert-butyl alcohol, but due to force majeure factors, two companies are currently shutting down MMA units from 2022.

5. Industry Capacity Utilization Changes

with the rapid increase in MMA supply and the relatively slow increase in demand, the industry supply and demand pattern is gradually shifting from oversupply to oversupply. This shift has led to limited pressure on the start of domestic MMA plants, and the overall industry capacity utilization rate has shown a downward trend. In the future, with the gradual release of downstream demand and the promotion of industrial chain integration, the industry capacity utilization rate is expected to be improved.

近年来我国MMA行业产能利用率变化.jpg

6. Future Market Outlook

looking ahead, the MMA market will face many challenges and opportunities. On the one hand, many chemical giants around the world have announced capacity adjustments to their MMA devices, which will affect the supply and demand pattern of the global MMA market. On the other hand, domestic MMA production capacity will continue to grow, and with the development and application of new technologies, production costs are expected to be further reduced. At the same time, the expansion of the downstream market and the development of emerging applications will also bring new growth points to the MMA market.

source: Baichuan Yingfu

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