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[Industry Focus]：Phenol firm, acetone under pressure, phenol acetone price trend analysis

Read： 771 Time：5months ago Source：Baichuan Yingfu

1. price movements are in sharp contrast

since July, the domestic phenol Market Price with acetone Market Price the performance shows a diametrically opposite trend. Due to the tight supply of phenol market, the terminal price is stable at a high level, fluctuating between 8100-8300 yuan/ton, showing strong market support. In contrast, the acetone market appears to be weak. The offer price of East China Wharf fell from the high point, and continued to fall after falling below the 8000 yuan/ton mark. The lowest touch was around 7600 yuan/ton before there was a slight rebound, reflecting the market. Significant changes in supply and demand.

2023-2024年华东苯酚和丙酮价格走势统计.jpg

2. inventory differences significantly affect prices

from the point of view of terminal inventory, high acetone inventory is the main reason for its price pressure. Although the import volume is limited this year, the current situation of concentrated arrival of domestic trade and scattered delivery of domestic downstream goods has led to a sustained high inventory of acetone terminals in East China. The inventory of acetone terminals in Jiangyin Port has reached 25500 tons, which is higher than the annual average level, intensifying the supply pressure of the market. On the contrary, the phenol market due to low domestic trade arrival volume, export order support and weather factors caused by uneven arrival of goods, so that the terminal inventory remained at a low level, Jiangyin terminal inventory is always less than 10000 tons, the supply of goods is obviously tight, strongly supporting the price of phenol.

2023-2024年华东港口苯酚、丙酮库存走势统计.jpg

3. industry starts volatility affects supply

the start of domestic phenolic ketone plant in July also had an important impact on market prices. A number of large-scale phenol ketone factories carried out different degrees of maintenance or short-term shutdown at the beginning of the month and in the middle of the month, resulting in the overall operating rate fluctuating between 75% and 79%. Although it is at a high level throughout the year, the increase in export orders and the tight shipment situation further aggravated the supply tension in the phenol market. As for acetone, although some factories are gradually resuming production, the mismatch between the expected increase in supply and market demand makes it difficult to effectively boost prices.

2024年酚酮工厂理论盈利及行业开工率统计.jpg

4. Market Outlook and Price Forecast

based on the current market supply and demand situation and future trends, the phenol market is expected to maintain a horizontal consolidation trend this week. The raw material end is difficult to provide significant support, but the gradual increase in phenol supply at the same time, the reality of low terminal inventory will continue to support its price, it is expected that this week the East China phenol port shipment price will remain in the range of 8100-8200 yuan/ton. For the acetone market, although the warehouse was removed at the beginning of this week, the impact of the increase in supply still needs to be observed as the Shanghai direction resumes picking up goods. At the same time, the current average contract price is located near 7730 yuan/ton, there is some upward resistance. Therefore, it is expected that the price of acetone port shipments in East China will fluctuate in the range of 7630-7730 yuan/ton this week.

Source: Baichuan Yingfu

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