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[Industry Focus]：Phenolic ketone market June report: price changes under the supply and demand game.

Read： 436 Time：5months ago Source：Zhang Xiaobo, responsible editor of Baichuan Yingfu

1. price analysis

2024年6月份中国酚酮行业数据.jpg

phenol Market:

in June, phenol Market Price the overall upward trend, the monthly average price reached 8111 yuan/ton, up 306.5 yuan/ton from the previous month, a significant increase of 3.9. This rising trend is mainly due to the tight market supply, especially in the northern region, which is particularly scarce. Factory maintenance in Shandong and Dalian has led to a decrease in supply. At the same time, the load of bisphenol A plant was higher than expected, and the consumption of phenol increased significantly, further aggravating the contradiction between supply and demand in the market. In addition, the high price of pure benzene at the raw material end also provides strong support for the price of phenol. However, at the end of the month, the price of phenol weakened slightly due to the long-term loss of bisphenol A and the expected spread of pure benzene from July to August.

Acetone Market:

similar to Phenol Market, June acetone Market Price it also showed a slight upward trend, with a monthly average price of 8093.68 yuan/ton, up 23.4 yuan/ton from the previous month, or 0.3 per cent. The rise in the acetone market was mainly due to the industry's expectations of concentrated maintenance in July-August and a decrease in future import arrivals, and trading sentiment improved. However, with downstream terminals stocking up in the early stages of digestion and declining demand for small solvents, acetone prices began to weaken at the end of the month, falling to around 7850 yuan/tonne. Acetone's own speculative properties also led to the industry to focus on inventory, terminal inventory increased significantly.

2023-2024年国内苯酚、丙酮市场均价走势图.jpg

2. supply analysis

2023-2024年苯酚、丙酮月度产量对比图.jpg

in June, phenol production was 383824 tons, down 8463 tons from the previous month. Acetone production was 239022 tons, down 4654 tons from the previous month. The operating rate of phenol ketone enterprises decreased, with the industry operating rate of 73.67 per cent in June, down 2.7 per cent from May. Dalian plant downstream construction gradually increased, reducing the release of acetone, further affecting the market supply.

3. demand analysis

2023-20124年酚酮、双酚A、异丙醇、MMA开工率对比图.jpg

the start-up rate of bisphenol A plants rose significantly in June to 70.08 per cent, up 9.98 per cent from May, providing strong support for demand for phenol and acetone. The operating rates of phenolic resin and MMA units also improved, up 1.44 percent and 16.26 percent month-on-month, respectively, indicating a positive change in downstream demand. However, although the operating rate of isopropanol plants increased by 1.3 month on month, the overall demand growth was relatively limited.

4. inventory analysis

2023-2024年华东港口苯酚、丙酮库存走势统计.jpg

in June, the phenol market to achieve de-stocking, factory inventory and Jiangyin port inventory have declined, the end of the month returned to normal levels. In contrast, the port inventory in the acetone market has accumulated and is at a high level, showing the current situation of relatively abundant market supply but insufficient demand growth.

5. Gross Profit Analysis

affected by the rise in raw material prices, the cost per ton of phenol ketone in East China increased by 509 yuan/ton in June. Among them, the listing price of pure benzene rose to 9450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the average price of pure benzene in a petrochemical enterprise in East China rose by 519 yuan/ton compared with May; the price of propylene also continued to rise, with the average price rising by 83 yuan/ton compared with May. However, despite the rising cost, the phenol ketone industry is still facing a loss, with a loss of 490 yuan/ton in June. The average monthly gross profit of bisphenol A industry reached -1086 yuan/ton, indicating the weakness of the industry's profitability.

In summary, the phenol and acetone markets showed different price trends in June under the dual effects of tight supply and increased demand. In the future, with the end of factory maintenance and changes in downstream demand, the market supply and demand relationship will be further adjusted, and the price trend will fluctuate accordingly. At the same time, the continuous increase in raw material prices will bring greater cost pressure to the industry, and it is necessary to pay close attention to market dynamics to deal with potential risks.

Source: Zhang Xiaobo, responsible editor of Baichuan Yingfu

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