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[Industry Focus]：Energy structure reshuffle? How to see the evolution of China's chemical import and export market

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With the rapid development of China's chemical industry and the evolution of the global trade pattern, China's chemical import and export market has shown significant structural changes. These changes not only reflect the internal adjustment of China's chemical industry, but also indicate the new trend of China's chemical trade in the future.

Structural Changes in China's Chemical Import Market in 1.

Crude oil imports keep growing

crude oil is the basic raw material of China's chemical industry, and its import volume has always maintained a rapid growth. This is closely related to the energy structure of China's rich coal, lack of oil and gas, making crude oil imports an important factor supporting the development of China's chemical industry. According to statistics, China's annual crude oil imports are about 0.5 billion tons, and it has maintained a growth rate of 5% in the past seven years.

2. Fossil energy imports dominate

in the import of more than 10 million tons of petrochemical products, crude oil, coal and natural gas and other fossil energy accounted for the vast majority of the share, accounting for about 83% of the total import of nearly 700 kinds of petrochemical products. This data shows that China's dependence on fossil energy is still high, and its imports have always maintained a huge scale.

3. Polyethylene is the main import of polymer materials

polyethylene, as the only polymer material product with an import volume of more than 10 million tons in the past seven years, its import volume has always been maintained at the level of about 10 million tons. Although the scale of China's polyethylene localization continues to grow, imported high-end grade polyethylene still occupies a certain market share, which reflects the current situation of China's polyethylene market supply structure.

4. Significant growth rate of diluted asphalt imports

diluted asphalt, as the fastest growing product in the import of more than 10 million tons of chemicals, its import growth rate is more than 16%. This growth trend is closely related to the change of China's oil blending market policy and the growth of demand for low-carbon products.

Potential changes in China's chemical import market in 2.

1. Some chemical imports gradually shrink

with the growth of China's chemical production scale and the improvement of technical level, the self-sufficiency rate of some chemical products has gradually increased, and the import volume of products such as ethylene glycol, xylene, and polypropylene is gradually shrinking. This trend indicates the improvement of self-sufficiency of China's chemical industry and the reduction of external dependence.

2. Saturated acyclic hydrocarbon imports continued to grow

butane, n-hexane, n-heptane, isohexane, white oil and other saturated acyclic hydrocarbons have become the next category of potential chemicals with an import volume of more than 10 million tons. The rapid growth of imports of these products is closely related to China's growing demand for low-carbon products and changes in oil blending market policies.

Figure 1 China's imports of petrochemical products by size in 2023 (unit: wt)

中国2023年进口的石化产品按照规模排序.jpg

data source: China Customs

3. follow-up development prospects

the changes in China's chemical import and export market reflect the internal adjustment of China's chemical industry and the evolution of the global trade pattern. With the growth of China's chemical production scale and the improvement of technical level, the self-sufficiency rate of some chemical products has gradually increased, while the import volume of fossil energy and other products will remain high. At the same time, with the changes in the global trade pattern and market demand, China's chemical import and export market will also appear new trends and changes. Therefore, China's chemical industry needs to pay close attention to market dynamics and policy changes, actively respond to challenges and seize opportunities.

Source: Chemical Flathead Brother

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