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[Industry Focus]：Phenolic ketone, bisphenol A production capacity increased significantly, capacity expansion and profitability challenges in parallel.

Read： 461 Time：5months ago Source：百川盈孚

Significant growth in production capacity in the 1. phenol and ketone industry

in 2023, the phenol ketone industry entered the peak period of expansion, with significant new effective capacity. Specifically, the commissioning of new factories and the expansion of existing factories have jointly promoted the rapid growth of production capacity. Six new factories put into operation a total of 2.88 million tons, while the expansion of two factories also contributed 530000 tons of new production capacity. This brought the total new effective production capacity of the phenol ketone industry to 3.41 million tons, and the total production capacity of the industry climbed to 10.28 million tons. This growth not only reflects the positive response of the industry to the growth of market demand, but also indicates the further change of the market competition pattern in the future.

Synchronous expansion of bisphenol A industry capacity in 2.

As a downstream product of phenol ketone, bisphenol A industry has also experienced continuous expansion of production capacity in 2023. During the year, 4 factories put into operation and added 1.05 million tons of production capacity, bringing the total production capacity of bisphenol A industry to 4.875 million tons. This growth trend echoes the capacity expansion of the phenolic ketone industry, reflecting the coordinated development of the entire phenolic ketone industry chain upstream and downstream.

3. capacity utilization and profitability variance

entering 2024, the new production capacity of the phenol ketone industry will be fully produced, and the overall utilization rate will be as high as 80%. This shows that the phenolic ketone industry has achieved a higher capacity utilization rate while expanding its capacity, which is conducive to the improvement of industry profitability. However, the situation in the BPA industry is different. Despite the increase in production capacity, the overall operating rate of the industry fluctuates between 65% and 70%, indicating that the bisphenol A industry is insufficient in capacity utilization.

2024年酚酮工厂理论盈利及行业开工率统计.jpg

2024年双酚A工厂理论盈利及行业开工率统计.jpg

This difference is mainly due to the difference in profitability. Phenolic ketone plants can take the initiative to go to the warehouse by adjusting their own load and cross-checking in the industry to reduce losses. And bisphenol A as a general goods circulation, to the library is more difficult, and the downstream epoxy resin industry profit downturn, so that the load adjustment of bisphenol A plant has little impact on profitability. Therefore, the bisphenol A industry is facing greater challenges in profitability.

4. Market Supply and Price Volatility

data on May 20, 2024 showed that although the price of raw material pure benzene remained strong, the price of phenol acetone terminal remained stable for the time being. Phenol Wharf Price between 7700-7750 yuan/ton, acetone wharf price between 7950-8000 yuan/ton. This price level reflects the current supply and demand situation in the market. At the same time, due to low prices difficult to buy, the market supply is relatively tight.

2023-2024华东纯苯-苯酚现货价差统计.jpg

In addition, the continued high price of pure benzene has brought some cost pressure to the phenol ketone and bisphenol A industries. From the perspective of price difference, the profit space of phenol is limited, which makes the phenol ketone plant face greater challenges in cost control. However, with the arrival of imported Saudi goods in June, in stock circulation will increase, which is expected to provide space for phenol and acetone to make profits for BPA.

Source: Baichuan Yingfu

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