[Industry Focus]：New developments in the domestic PC market: how do prices, supply and demand and policies affect trends?

Recently, domestic PC Price showing a steady upward trend. Specifically, the mainstream negotiation price range of injection molding grade low-end materials in East China is 13900-16300 yuan/ton, while the negotiation price of medium and high-end materials is concentrated at 16650-16700 yuan/ton. Compared with the previous week, the price has generally increased by 50-200 yuan/ton. This price change reflects the subtle changes in market supply and demand, as well as the transmission effect of upstream raw material costs on PC market prices.

On the working day before the May Day holiday, the price adjustment of domestic PC factories was relatively rare. Only the bidding price of PC factories in Shandong increased by 200 yuan/ton, and the listing price of PC factories in southwest China also increased by 300 yuan/ton. This shows that despite the general trading atmosphere in the market, PC supply in some areas is still tight, and manufacturers are optimistic about the market outlook.

From the perspective of the in stock market, both East and South China have shown a trend of higher prices. The general mentality of the industry is cautious and moderate, with a price-based operation. Downstream manufacturers in the pre-holiday mainly to buy just need-based, the market trading situation is relatively stable. On the whole, the market atmosphere is more cautious and optimistic, and the industry generally expects that the PC market will continue to fluctuate and rise in the short term.

the Ministry of Commerce has decided to impose anti-dumping duties on imports of polycarbonate originating in Taiwan from April 20, 2024. The implementation of this policy has had a profound impact on the PC market.

1, the cost of PC imports to Taiwan has increased sharply. Due to the implementation of anti-dumping duties, the cost of Taiwan's PC products entering the mainland market will increase significantly, which will have a certain impact on Taiwan's PC export business. At the same time, this will also make the PC market in the mainland face more diversified sources of supply, and market competition will further intensify.

2. For the long-term flat PC market, the implementation of anti-dumping policy is like a cardiotonic, bringing new vitality to the market. However, as the good news of the anti-dumping policy has been digested in the early market, the stimulating effect of the anti-dumping policy on the market may be limited. In addition, due to the abundant supply of domestic PC in stock, the impact of the anti-dumping policy of imported materials is difficult to directly stimulate the domestic material market offer. The market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the merchant price adjustment intention is limited, more stable operation is given priority.

It should be noted that the implementation of the anti-dumping policy does not mean that the domestic PC market will completely get rid of the dependence on imported materials. On the contrary, with the continuous improvement of domestic PC production capacity and the intensification of market competition, the domestic PC market will pay more attention to product quality and cost control to cope with the competitive pressure from imported materials.

in recent years, the process of domestic PC localization has been accelerating, and new devices of Hengli Petrochemical and other enterprises have been put into production one after another, providing more supply options for the domestic market. According to incomplete research data, there are 6 sets of PC devices in China in the second quarter, with a total production capacity of 760000 tons/year. This means that during the second quarter, the supply of the domestic PC market will be affected to a certain extent.

However, the commissioning of the new device does not mean that the domestic PC market will completely get rid of the dilemma of supply shortage. On the contrary, due to the operation stability of the new device after it is put into operation and the maintenance of multiple sets of devices, there will still be some uncertainty in the supply of the domestic PC market. Therefore, in the next period of time, the supply changes in the domestic PC market will still be affected by a variety of factors.

with the overall recovery of the domestic economy, the PC consumer market is expected to usher in new growth opportunities. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, 2024 will be a year of economic recovery and a moderate rebound in inflation, and the annual GDP growth target is expected to be set at around 5.0 per cent. This will provide a good macroeconomic environment for the development of the PC market.

In addition, the increase in the consumption promotion year policy and the low base effect of some commodities will also help to promote the consumption center to continue to rise. Service consumption is expected to shift from post-epidemic recovery to continued expansion, and growth is expected to remain high in the future. These factors will provide strong support for the growth of the PC market.

But the height of consumption repair should not be overestimated. Although the overall economic environment is conducive to the development of the PC market, the intensification of market competition and the need for cost control will also bring certain challenges to the growth of the PC market. Therefore, in the coming period of time, the growth of the PC market is expected to be affected by a combination of factors.

Entering the second quarter, the domestic PC market will be affected by a variety of factors. First of all, the supply side of the bisphenol A market is still variable, and its price trend will have an important impact on the PC market. It is expected that bisphenol A in the supply and cost side of the support, the market will show the characteristics of shock to digestion. This will put some pressure on the cost of the PC market.

At the same time, changes in supply and demand in the domestic PC market will also have an important impact on the market. The commissioning of new units and the overhaul of multiple units will create some uncertainty on the supply side. The demand situation of downstream manufacturers will also have an important impact on the market trend. Therefore, during the second quarter, changes in supply and demand in the PC market will be a key factor affecting the market.

Policy factors will also have a certain impact on the PC market. In particular, anti-dumping policies for imported materials and supporting policies for the domestic PC industry will have an important impact on the market competition pattern and the relationship between supply and demand.