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[Industry Focus]：With limited cost support and slow demand growth, where will the PC market go?

Read： 527 Time：8months ago Source：环氧树脂交流与交易、化易天下

1. supply-side maintenance drives market tentative rise

in mid-to-late March, with the release of overhaul news of several sets of PC devices such as Hainan Huasheng, Shengtong Juyuan and Dafeng Jiangning, the market supply side showed positive signs. This trend led to a tentative rise in the in stock market, and PC manufacturers raised their ex-factory quotations one after another, with an increase of 200-300 yuan/ton. However, after entering April, the early positive effect gradually weakened, in stock prices failed to continue to rise, the market fell into a post-rise stalemate. In addition, the prices of raw materials are running at a low level, and the prices of some brands even fall, and market participants hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the future market.

Low price of 2. raw material bisphenol A has limited support for PC cost

the recent price of raw material bisphenol A remained low, although the upstream pure benzene support is strong, but the performance of both ends of supply and demand is not satisfactory. On the supply side, some units of bisphenol A were overhauled or load-reduced in April, while new capacity was planned to be put into operation, and production was likely to increase. On the demand side, the downstream demand for bisphenol A has shrunk due to the maintenance of individual PC devices and poor demand for epoxy terminals. Under the game of supply and demand and cost, it is expected that the price of bisphenol A will still show range fluctuations in the later period, and the cost support effect of PC is limited.

3. PC device operation stabilized, maintenance benefits gradually weakened

from the recent domestic PC device dynamic point of view, most manufacturers of stable operation of the device. As Hainan Huasheng entered the overhaul period, PC capacity utilization declined, down 3.83 percent month-on-month, but up 10.85 percent year-on-year. In addition, Shengtong Juyuan PC device is also planned to be repaired in late April. However, the positive effects of these overhauls have been released in advance, and the impact on the market is gradually weakening. At the same time, it is rumored that Hengli Petrochemical PC plant will be put into production at the end of the month. If the news is true, it may give a certain boost to the PC market.

Recent domestic PC device dynamics

近期国内PC装置动态.jpg

4. PC apparent consumption growth is slow and demand support is limited.

According to the statistics from January to March, the capacity utilization rate of the domestic PC industry has further improved, and the output has increased significantly year-on-year, but the net import has dropped sharply, so the apparent consumption growth is limited. In the first quarter, the profitability of the domestic PC industry improved significantly, manufacturers started to improve, the device is running well. However, although downstream consumption has certain good expectations, but the rigid demand for PC is difficult to become a strong support to drive the market.

5. short-term PC market or to rise after finishing the main operation

comprehensive analysis of the above, the current PC market supply-side support still exists, but the cost and demand side of the pressure can not be ignored. The low price of raw material bisphenol A has limited support for PC costs, while the slow growth of downstream consumption makes it difficult to provide strong demand support. Therefore, it is expected that in the short term, the PC market may be dominated by rising and finishing operations.

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