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[Industry Focus]：MMA market prices soar, tight supply is the main driver

Read： 478 Time：5months ago Source：百川盈孚

1. Market Overview: Prices Rise Significantly

on the first trading day after the qingming festival, methyl methacrylate (MMA) market prices rose sharply. The quotation of enterprises in East China jumped to 14500 yuan/ton, up 600-800 yuan/ton from the pre-holiday price. At the same time, enterprises in Shandong continued to raise their quotations during the holiday season. Today's execution price reached 14150 yuan/ton, an increase of 500 yuan/ton from before the holiday. Although downstream users face cost pressures and are resistant to high-priced MMA, the scarcity of low-priced sources in the market has forced the focus of transactions to move up.

2023-2024年我国MMA市场价格走势图.jpg

2. supply-side analysis: tight in stock support prices

at present, there are 19 MMA production enterprises in China, of which 13 adopt ACH method and 6 adopt C4 method.

Among the C4 production enterprises, due to poor production profits, three enterprises have stopped production since 2022 and have not yet resumed production. Although the other three are in operation, some devices, such as Huizhou MMA device, have been shut down for maintenance recently and are expected to resume in late April.

Among the ACH production enterprises, the MMA units in Zhejiang and Liaoning are still in a shutdown state. Two enterprises in Shandong were affected by upstream acrylonitrile or plant problems, and their starting load remained low. Some enterprises in Hainan, Guangdong and Jiangsu are limited in overall supply due to routine maintenance of their units or incomplete release of the capacity of newly put into production units.

3. industry status: low start load, no pressure on inventory

according to statistics, the average operating load of the domestic MMA industry is only 42.35 per cent, which is at a low level. Due to the lack of pressure on factory inventory, the market in stock circulation is particularly tight, further pushing up prices. In the short term, in stock tensions are difficult to ease and will continue to support MMA prices upward.

4. Downstream Reactions and Future Prospects

in the face of high-priced MMA, downstream user costs are not passed on smoothly, and the ability to accept high prices is limited. It is expected that procurement will mainly focus on rigid demand. However, with the restart of some maintenance devices in the second half of the month, the supply tension is expected to be eased, and the market price may gradually stabilize by then.

To sum up, the current sharp rise in MMA market prices is mainly driven by tight in stock supply. In the next period of time, the market will still be affected by supply-side factors, but with the gradual recovery of maintenance devices, the price trend may gradually stabilize.

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