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[Industry Focus]：The price of phenol industry chain rises and falls, the game of market dynamics, supply and demand relationship and cost pressure.

Read： 604 Time：7months ago Source：卓创化工

Analysis of Phenol Industry Chain Price Fluctuation in January 1.

January 2024, China phenol the price of the industrial chain shows a mixed trend. In this month, except for pure benzene and PC products, all other products showed a downward trend. This trend reflects the changes in the market supply and demand relationship and the impact of new capacity release.

In terms of decline, phenol suffered the largest decline, with the average monthly price falling 5.66 per cent month-on-month. The main reason is the continuous release of new production capacity and the return to normal of some of the phenol ketone units that were shut down in the early stage, resulting in a significant increase in supply pressure. This makes the market a larger downward adjustment trend. However, although the profitability of phenolic ketone companies has deteriorated, the market price gradually stabilized in the middle and late of the month due to the cost support effect began to appear.

In terms of increase, the performance of upstream pure benzene is more prominent, the monthly average price rose to 8.91. This is mainly due to the low inventory of the main port of East China, and the planned shutdown of the styrene plant of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company within the month, which led to higher styrene prices, further favorable pure benzene prices. In addition, the demand for stock before the Spring Festival also has a pulling effect on the price of pure benzene.

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In-depth analysis of the profitability of the 2. industry.

In January 2024, the profit situation of phenol and upstream and downstream industrial chains showed a mixed trend. On the whole, the profits of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of phenol are mostly concentrated in the products at the upper and lower ends, while this month's profits are mainly concentrated in pure benzene and PC products. However, phenol-bisphenol A- epoxy resin chain enterprises are still facing large losses.

The degree of loss in the phenolic ketone industry has further increased, mainly due to the continued release of new production capacity and the return to normal of some of the pre-shutdown phenolic ketone units. This results in a significant increase in the supply increment pressure. In addition, the volatility of upstream pure benzene prices and the continuous inversion of phenol and pure benzene prices have further exacerbated the cost pressure on manufacturers.

Bisphenol A and epoxy resin industry supply and demand pressure is still large, the cost of downward conduction is relatively slow, the degree of loss of enterprises is difficult to significantly improve. This reflects the problems and challenges in these industries in terms of market structure, supply and demand, and cost pressures.

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Prospect and Strategy Suggestion of Phenol Industry Chain in February 3.

Entering February 2024, it is expected that the phenol industry chain market as a whole will show a strong operating trend. At the upstream end, the pure benzene industry may rise first and then fall. Due to the low level of inventory in the main port of East China and the expected impact of oil transfer in Europe and the United States, the external price is high, which will provide some support for the rise of pure benzene price. However, downstream industry resistance to high-priced raw materials may exert downward pressure on pure benzene prices.

Overall, the cost of downstream industry support is still strong. At present, the downstream phenol-bisphenol A- epoxy resin chain is in a deficit state. Before the Spring Festival holiday, some production enterprises may take measures to reduce the negative or stop to deal with the loss situation, which will lead to the expected contraction of supply. This will provide some impetus for upward fluctuations in market prices. However, given that the demand side is also expected to shrink around the Spring Festival, the market's upside is likely to be relatively limited.

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Therefore, it is expected that in February, the price trend of phenol industry chain may show an upward trend of shock. However, under the influence of market supply and demand and cost pressures, the room for price increases may be limited. For manufacturers, it is necessary to pay close attention to market dynamics and cost changes, and flexibly adjust production and sales strategies to meet market challenges and opportunities.

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