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[Industry Focus]：MMA four quarter market trend analysis, after the market or light end

Read： 312 Time：12months ago Source：隆众资讯

MMA after entering the fourth quarter, the market opened weakly due to the abundant supply of post-holiday in stock. After a broad decline, the market rebounded from the end of October to early November due to the centralized maintenance of some factories. The market performance was firm in the middle and late. However, after entering December, the weak supply and demand situation makes the market game continue.

in stock Plenty, Weak Opening

MMA market in the fourth quarter, due to the abundant supply of in stock after the holiday, the market opened weak. At this time, the holders of goods to in stock the shipment positive, offer weak lower, buy up not buy down mentality spread in the market. These factors led to the average price of East China's secondary market in October from 12150 yuan/ton in September to below 11000 yuan/ton.

Mid-day supply and demand shortage, market rebound

in the market from the end of October to the first half of November, due to the impact of centralized maintenance of factories, there is a periodic shortage of supply. At the same time, the cost side of the support is strong, prices after a broad decline in October began to rebound. However, the demand side has not improved significantly, and part of the month downstream there is a negative, mid-to-late market upward resistance still exists.

MMA plant capacity recovery, market stability

after entering November, supply fell sharply, forming some support for prices. As a result, the market rose in early November. At this stage, the negative correlation between output and price is particularly prominent. But with some factories resuming restarts in late November, the market became lighter under the balance between cost and supply and demand.

December MMA Trend Forecast

after entering December, the market continued the stalemate in November. The supply side of the market has not yet fully recovered in the first half of the year, and the market is likely to be dominated by consolidation. The cost side of the market is still supported in the mid-to-late period, but there are still variables on the supply side. It is expected that there is an expectation of market supply improvement in December, and the market may have a slightly weaker expectation, which requires close attention to the dynamics of plant installations.

In early December, plant capacity utilization improved year-on-year. However, due to some factories mainly supply contracts and pre-orders, inventory pressure is still under control. And downstream demand is still no significant improvement, resulting in a slight stalemate in market trading. There is still uncertainty about whether the supply side can be further improved in the middle and late. However, the weak demand situation is difficult to change. The cost side remains the underlying support factor and does not rule out the expectation of a slight weakening. Market volatility is expected to be limited. The market is likely to end lightly in the fourth quarter, continuing to focus on MMA plant installations and shipments.

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