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[Industry Focus]：Downstream procurement intentions pick up, pushing up the positive butanol market.

Read： 398 Time：12months ago Source：百川盈孚

On October 26, the market price of n-butanol rose, with an average market price of 7790 yuan/ton, up 1.39 percent from the previous working day. There are two main reasons for the price increase.

1. Under the negative background of the main downstream Bingding cost upside down and the downstream suspension of procurement in stock, the two n-butanol factories in Shandong and northwest regions competed fiercely for shipment, resulting in a continuous decline in market prices. Until Wednesday, large factories in Shandong had a large volume of transactions, and n-butanol in northwest regions had a premium transaction. The market showed signs of rebound.

2, downstream plasticizers and butyl acetate manufacturers shipments improved, coupled with the factory raw material inventory low, the market has a certain demand. Downstream manufacturers into the market procurement sentiment is high, the northwest region and Shandong large factories both premium transactions, and thus promote the positive butanol market price rise.

An n-butanol plant in Ningxia will have an overhaul plan next week, but its impact on the market is limited due to its small daily production. At present, some of the downstream procurement enthusiasm is OK, positive butanol mainstream manufacturers ship smoothly, short-term market prices still have room to rise. But the main downstream demand is not good, restricting the market growth of butanol. Sichuan a device restart time ahead of time, market supply increased, medium-and long-term market prices or there will be a risk of decline.

DBP industry continues to be in a stable profit state, but the overall downstream demand is not high, short-term devices to maintain the current load is likely, DBP market demand is expected to be stable next week. At present, the operation of the device in the vinegar ding field has not been adjusted for the time being, no overhaul has been heard of next week, and the fluctuation of market demand is limited. The main downstream cost upside down, enterprises to implement the contract-based, suspended in stock procurement.

Crude oil and propane prices are high, and cost support remains. The main downstream polypropylene weakness does not change, at the edge of profit and loss, the propylene market support is limited. But other downstream performance is OK, propylene manufacturers shipments for two consecutive days of good, the price trend of the obvious support, manufacturers also hold the price will. Short-term domestic propylene mainstream market prices are expected to be strong consolidation.

Overall, the propylene market is strong finishing, the downstream market still has just need to exist, n-butanol manufacturers ship smoothly, short-term market prices still have room to rise. However, the main downstream demand is weak, the market growth has a certain constraint. It is expected that in the short term, the center of gravity of the positive butanol market will be high-end, with an increase of about 200-400 yuan/ton.

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