[Industry Focus]：Market Analysis of China's Chemical Products in the First Three Quarters of 2023

From October 2022 to mid -2023, China's chemical market prices generally fell. However, since mid -2023, the prices of many chemicals have bottomed out and rebounded, showing a retaliatory upward trend. In order to gain an in-depth understanding of the trend of China's chemical market, we have compiled the market price data of more than 100 kinds of chemicals and observed the market situation from the perspectives of the past six months and the most recent quarter.

in the past six months, compared with the same period last year, more than 60% of the chemical market prices have fallen, showing the bleak mood of the market. Among them, the prices of process gas, polysilicon, glufosinate, lithium hydroxide, raw salt, sulfuric acid, lithium carbonate, antioxidant and liquefied natural gas have fallen most significantly.

Among the types of chemical products that fell, industrial gases showed the largest decline, and the overall decline, and the cumulative decline of individual products even exceeded 30%. Some products related to the new energy industry chain are also followed, such as photovoltaic industry chain and lithium battery industry chain related products, the price decline is quite significant.

On the other hand, products such as liquid chlorine, hydrogen peroxide, glacial acetic acid, heptane, octanol, crude benzene and isopropanol showed a trend of rising prices. Among them, the octanol market rose the most significant, up to more than 440. Basic chemicals also rose, but only about 9% on average.

Among the rising chemical products, about 79% of the products increased by less than 10%, which is the largest increase in the number of products. In addition, 15 per cent of chemicals rose 10-20 per cent, 2.8 per cent of chemicals rose 20-30 per cent, 1.25 per cent of chemicals rose 30-50 per cent, and only 1.88 per cent of chemicals rose more than 50 per cent.

Although most of the chemical market rose within 10%, which is a relatively reasonable range of fluctuations, there are also a few chemical products that have seen large increases. China's bulk chemicals are highly market-oriented, and most rely on the domestic supply and demand environment to influence market volatility. Therefore, in the past six months, most of the chemical market rose within 10%.

As for the types of chemicals that fell, about 71% of the chemicals fell by less than 10%, which accounted for a relatively large decline. In addition, 21 per cent of chemicals fell by 10-20 per cent, 4.1 per cent by 20-30 per cent, 2.99 per cent by 30-50 per cent and only 1.12 per cent by more than 50 per cent. It can be seen that although there has been a broad downward trend in China's bulk chemical market, most of the products have fallen by less than 10%, and only a few products have experienced a large price decline.

according to the proportion of the number of products in the chemical market in the last three months, 76% of the products fell, accounting for the largest proportion. In addition, 21% of product prices increased, and only 3% of product prices remained stable. It can be seen that the chemical market has continued to decline in the past three months, and the products that have fallen account for the vast majority.

From the perspective of the types of products that fell, many products including industrial gases and new energy industry chain products such as nitrogen, argon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, etc., fell the most. In addition, some bulk chemical base materials also fell during this period.

Although the chemical market has risen to a certain extent in the past three months, more than 84% of the chemical products have increased within 10%. In addition, 11 percent of chemicals rose 10-20 percent, 1 percent of chemicals rose 20-30 percent, and 2.2 percent of chemicals rose 30-50 percent. These data show that in the past three months, the chemical market has mostly shown a small increase, and the market price fluctuation is limited.

Although the market price of chemicals has risen, it is more due to the rebound of the previous decline and the change of market environment. Therefore, these increases do not mean that the trend within the industry has reversed.

At the same time, the declining chemical market also showed a similar trend. About 62 per cent of chemicals fell by less than 10 per cent, 27 per cent by 10-20 per cent, 6.8 per cent by 20-30 per cent and 2.67 per cent by 30-50 per cent, while only 1.19 per cent by more than 50 per cent.

Oil prices have continued to rise recently, but the support that cost growth brings to market prices is not the best logic for market price increases. The consumer market has not yet changed, and the price of China's chemical market is still in a weak market. It is expected that for the rest of 2023, China's chemical market will remain in weak fluctuations, which may drive the growth of the domestic consumer market near the end of the year.