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[Industry Focus]：Octanol prices rose sharply, mainly short-term high volatility.

Read： 391 Time：13months ago Source：百川盈孚

On October 7, octanol prices rose sharply, due to stable downstream demand, enterprises just need to replenish, mainstream manufacturers limited sales and maintenance plans to further speculation. Downstream sales pressure to inhibit the increase, octanol manufacturers inventory low, short-term sales pressure is not much. In the future, the supply of octanol market will be reduced, which will have a certain positive boost to the market, but the downstream follow-up power is insufficient, the market is in a dilemma, high consolidation is the main. Plasticizer market gains are limited, downstream cautious wait-and-see, transaction follow-up is limited. The propylene market is weak, and propylene prices are likely to fall further due to crude oil prices and downstream demand.

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On October 7, the market price of octanol rose sharply, with an average market price of 12652 yuan/ton, up 6.77 per cent from the previous working day. Due to the stability of downstream manufacturers, coupled with the factory raw material inventory is not high, enterprises just need to replenish to drive the market. However, the mainstream manufacturers of octanol limited sales, and at the beginning of the week Shandong large factory closed, octanol market supply is tight. After the festival octanol a factory storage maintenance plan, further speculation atmosphere is strong, to promote the market price of octanol.

Despite the tight supply and high prices in the octanol market, downstream sales are under pressure, and factories have suspended the purchase of raw materials, curbing the growth of the octanol market. Octanol manufacturers inventory is low, short-term sales pressure is not big. On October 10, octanol manufacturers have maintenance plans, and in the middle of South China butyl octanol manufacturers also have maintenance plans. At that time, the supply of octanol market will be reduced, which will give a good boost to the market. However, at present, the octanol market has risen to a relatively high level, the downstream follow-up power is insufficient, the market is in a dilemma, high consolidation is the main.

The growth of the plasticizer market is limited. Although the trend of raw materials in the downstream plasticizer market is different, due to the sharp rise in the market price of octanol, the main raw material, factories generally raised their quotations. However, the current round of market growth rate is larger, downstream customers temporarily maintain a cautious and wait-and-see attitude, transaction follow-up is limited. Some plasticizer manufacturers have maintenance plans, the market operating rate decreased, but the demand side of the market support in general.

The propylene market is weak at the current stage. The downward trend of international crude oil prices has had a negative impact on the propylene market, and the news guidance is pessimistic. At the same time, the main downstream product of propylene, the polypropylene market, is also weak and the overall demand is insufficient, which makes it difficult to support the price trend of propylene. Although manufacturers are cautious about making profits, propylene prices are likely to fall further under the pressure of downstream demand. It is expected that in the short term, the price of domestic propylene market will remain weak and stable.

On the whole, the performance of the propylene market is weak, downstream enterprises are facing sales pressure, and factories adopt cautious follow-up strategies. On the other hand, the inventory level of the octanol market is not high, and a certain octanol device has a maintenance plan, which plays a certain supporting role in the market. It is expected that the octanol market will be dominated by high fluctuations in the short term, and the fluctuation range is expected to be between 100-300 yuan/ton.

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