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[Industry Focus]：Multiple positive effects, vinyl acetate prices continue to rise

Read： 582 Time：15months ago Source：百川盈孚

The price of vinyl acetate was 7046 yuan per ton yesterday. Up to now, the price range of vinyl acetate market is between 6900 yuan and 8000 yuan per ton. Some time ago, the price of acetic acid, the raw material of vinyl acetate, has been at a high level due to a shortage of supply. Although the cost has benefited, the market price has generally remained stable due to weak market demand. With the firm price of acetic acid, the pressure on the production cost of vinyl acetate has increased, so manufacturers are more likely to fulfill their previous contracts and export orders, resulting in a reduction in market in stock resources. In addition, the current stocking season before the double festival, market demand has picked up, so the market price of vinyl acetate remains strong.

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In terms of cost: acetic acid market in a period of time due to weak demand, prices have been maintained at a low level, many manufacturers to reduce inventory operations. However, due to the unexpected maintenance of on-site equipment, resulting in a shortage of in stock supply in the market, which makes manufacturers more inclined to raise prices, pushing the market price of acetic acid to a high level, and the cost of vinyl acetate has been strongly supported.

Supply side: in the vinyl acetate market, the equipment operating load of the main manufacturers in North China is relatively low, while the equipment load of the main manufacturers in Northwest China is also relatively low due to increased cost pressure and poor equipment efficiency. In addition, due to the previous weak price of vinyl acetate in the market, some manufacturers purchase external vinyl acetate for downstream production. Large manufacturers mainly fulfill large orders and export orders, so the market in stock supply is restricted, and there are also positive factors on the supply side, which has boosted the vinyl acetate market to a certain extent.

On the demand side: although some news shows that there are some potential good news in the terminal real estate industry some time ago, the actual market demand has not increased significantly, and the market demand is still dominated by basic demand. Now just before the double festival, the downstream began to gradually stock up, the enthusiasm of market inquiry has improved, and the market demand has also increased.

In terms of profit: with the rapid rise in the market price of acetic acid, the cost pressure of vinyl acetate has increased significantly, resulting in an increase in the profit deficit. Under the premise that the cost support is still acceptable, and there are certain favorable factors on both the supply and demand sides, the manufacturer raised the in stock price of vinyl acetate.

Due to the rapid rise in the market price of acetic acid, there is a certain degree of resistance to high-priced acetic acid in the downstream market, and the purchasing enthusiasm is reduced, mainly based on basic demand. In addition, some traders still hold some contract goods for sale, and manufacturers continue to produce at a high level, the supply of in stock in the market is expected to increase, so it is expected that the market price of acetic acid may remain high and stable, and the cost side of vinyl acetate still has some support. There is no news of equipment maintenance in the vinyl acetate market. The equipment of major manufacturers in Northwest China is still in a low-load operation state, while the equipment of major manufacturers in North China may resume production. At that time, the supply of in stock in the market may increase. However, in view of the relatively small scale of equipment and the fact that manufacturers mainly fulfill contracts and export orders, the overall supply of in stock in the market is still tight. On the demand side, during the double festival period, the transportation of dangerous goods will be affected to a certain extent, and the downstream terminal will start to stock up when the double festival is close, and the overall market demand will also increase. In the case of small positive factors on both the supply and demand sides, the market price of vinyl acetate may rise to a certain extent. The increase is expected to be between 100 and 200 yuan per ton, and the market price range will remain between 7100 yuan and 8100 yuan per ton.

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