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[Industry Focus]：Acetone August industry analysis, September focus on changes in supply and demand structure

Read： 438 Time：15months ago Source：隆众资讯

In August, the acetone market was mainly adjusted and operated. After the sharp rise in July, the major mainstream markets maintained a high level of operation with limited fluctuations. What aspects should the industry pay attention to in September?

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In early August, shipments arrived as planned and port inventories rose. New contract shipments, phenolic ketone factory discharge, Shenghong refining temporarily not maintenance, market sentiment is under pressure. Increased circulation in stock, low-cost shipments by cargo holders, terminal digestion contracts, wait and see.

In mid-August, market fundamentals were weak, with cargo holders shipping according to market conditions and limited demand from end factories. Active delivery is not much, petrochemical enterprises to reduce the unit price of acetone, profit pressure increased, wait-and-see sentiment increased.

At the end of August, as the settlement date approached, the pressure on domestic goods contracts increased, shipping sentiment warmed up, and offers fell back. Port cargo shortage, import resource suppliers bid low weak, offer firm. Domestic goods and port goods competition is fierce, terminal factories digest inventory, low-cost delivery increased. Downstream enterprises continue to replenish, the market trading is relatively deadlocked, trading flat.

Cost side: the market price of pure benzene is mainly rising, and the load of domestic pure benzene plant is stable. As the delivery period approaches, there may be short covering. Although some downstream demand is expected to increase, this is only a small rebound after a significant decline in overall downstream demand. Therefore, although demand will pick up slightly, the reference price of pure benzene in the short term may be around 7850-7950 yuan/ton.

Propylene market prices continued to fall, propylene prices fell sharply, the market supply and demand pressure eased. In the short term, there is limited room for propylene prices to fall. The price of propylene in the main Shandong market is expected to fluctuate in the range of 6600-6800 yuan/ton.

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Rate of operation: bluestar Harbin phenol ketone plant is planned to restart before the end of the month, Jiangsu Ruiheng phenol ketone plant is also planned to restart, and its supporting phase II bisphenol A plant may be put into production, which will reduce the external sales of acetone. It is reported that Changchun Chemical's 480000-ton/year phenol ketone plant is scheduled to be overhauled in mid-to-late September and is expected to last for 45 days. Whether Dalian Hengli 650000-ton/year plant will be put into production in mid-to-late September as scheduled has attracted much attention. The production of its supporting bisphenol A and isopropanol plants will directly affect the external sales volume of acetone. If the phenol ketone plant is put into operation as originally planned, although its contribution to the acetone supply in September is limited, the later supply will increase.

Demand side: pay attention to the production of bisphenol A plant in September. The second phase of bisphenol A plant in Ruiheng, Jiangsu Province is planned to be put into production. The restart of Nantong Xingchen plant also needs attention. For MMA, due to limited raw materials, Shandong Hongxu's MMA device is expected to reduce production. Liaoning golden hair device is planned to be overhauled in September, and the specific situation still needs to be paid more attention. As for isopropyl alcohol, there is no clear maintenance plan at present, and the device changes little. For MIBK, Wanhua Chemical's 15000-ton/year MIBK plant is in a shutdown state and is scheduled to resume restart in late September. Zhejiang Zhenyang's 20000-ton/year plant is scheduled to be overhauled in September, and the specific time needs to be followed up.

In summary, the acetone market in September will focus on changes in the supply and demand structure. If there is a tight supply situation, it may push up the price of acetone, but it also needs to pay attention to changes on the demand side.

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