[Industry Focus]：The international crude oil headwind rose for two days, chemical bulk raw material prices accelerated decline,

Recently, the international crude oil WTI fluctuated in a narrow range of 70, rising for two consecutive days this week, but the chemical bulk has not yet been supported, and there has been an accelerated downward trend since this week.

According to industry analysis, the U.S. debt ceiling has not yet been determined, and macro factors such as recession fears caused by high interest rates in the U.S. and Europe have disrupted the market. Dragged down by negative macro sentiment, recession panic has become the current mainstream trading logic, and commodities are temporarily facing restraint.

At present, the beginning of June is the most important observation point. On the one hand, early June is the "hard deadline" for the US debt ceiling; on the other hand, on June 4, the OPEC + meeting will be held, when the market focus will settle. Until this period, chemical bulk products are expected to remain weak.

International crude oil headwinds rose for two days, chemical bulk accelerated downward

recently, the international crude oil WTI fluctuated within a narrow range of 70 marks, especially on Tuesday (May 23), the Saudi energy minister spoke in support of oil prices. At its annual leaders' meeting, the Group of Seven (G7) pledged to step up efforts to crack down on Russia's evasion of the price ceiling on oil fuel exports, and crude oil supplies are likely to tighten further. International crude oil WTI headwinds rose for two days to a half-month high. However, compared with crude oil, the early chemical commodities have not been supported. According to Jinlianchuang's data monitoring, since this week, the chemical index accelerated downward, half of the chemical in stock closed down, plastics and other sectors generally fell. As shown in the chart below, on May 23, Jinlianchuang Chemical closed at 5298 points, the lowest point since 2023, down 522 points from the mid-April high of 5820 points. From the week's close: On May 22, domestic in stock closed. According to the 131 chemical products monitored by Jinlianchuang, only 8 rose, 60 were stable, 63 fell, 6.11 and 48.09. On May 23, according to the 131 chemical products monitored by Jinlianchuang, 10 varieties rose, 61 varieties were stable, and 60 varieties fell, 7.63 and 45.80.

Data source: Jin Lianchuang

debt ceiling hike talks, Fed rate hike path issues complex

right now, the market is focused on negotiations to raise the U.S. debt ceiling. The debt ceiling is the maximum amount of debt set by the U.S. Congress for the federal government to meet payment obligations that have been incurred. Touching this "red line" means that the Treasury's lending authority has been exhausted. On January 19 this year, the US government reached the debt ceiling of 31.4 trillion US dollars. The Treasury Department immediately took "extraordinary measures" to avoid debt default, but the funds raised by these temporary measures were about to be exhausted.

On May 22, President Biden and House Speaker McCarthy failed to reach an agreement on how to raise the $31.4 trillion debt ceiling, but they promised to continue negotiations. U.S. Treasury Secretary Yellen has repeatedly warned that if Congress fails to raise the debt ceiling again by June, the United States will break the debt ceiling as early as June 1, leading to a debt default.

On the other hand, the Fed's path to raising interest rates is more complex. Fed officials currently said that they are divided into two groups: one group said that interest rate hikes are suspended; on the other hand, they are still positive about interest rate hikes. On June 15, the Federal Reserve will hold its June meeting on interest rates. The focus of the market is whether the Fed continues to raise interest rates, whether it is the last rate hike. At present, the market generally believes that May is the end of the Fed's current round of interest rate hikes. If interest rates are raised later, commodities may fall overall again.

Recession Panic Becomes Mainstream Logic Chemical Bulk Temporarily Weak Performance

according to industry analysis, the U.S. debt ceiling has not yet been determined, and macro factors such as recession fears caused by high interest rates in the U.S. and Europe have disrupted the market. Dragged down by negative macro sentiment, recession panic has become the current mainstream trading logic, and commodities are temporarily facing repression. At present, the beginning of June is the most important observation point. On the one hand, early June is the "hard deadline" for the US debt ceiling; on the other hand, on June 4, the OPEC + meeting will be held, when the market focus will settle. Until this period, chemical bulk products are expected to remain weak.