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[Industry Focus]：Acetic acid supply and demand confrontation before the festival adjustment space is limited

Read： 378 Time：18months ago Source：中宇资讯

In early April, with the domestic acetic acid price approaching the previous low again, downstream and traders to enter the market to purchase enthusiasm increased, the background of the improvement of the transaction atmosphere, the domestic acetic acid price in April again stopped falling and rebounded. However, at the same time, due to the poor profitability of downstream products and the difficulty of cost transfer, the rebound of this wave of market is limited, and the mainstream price increase in various regions is about 100 yuan/ton.

Name of Manufacturer	capacity (tons/year)	operation of the device
nanjing Celanese	120	on April 15, it was stopped for maintenance and heard that it would restart at the end of April.
Shunda, Henan	45	half-load operation of the unit, 700 tons per day
huayi Guangxi	50 70	april 11-April 20 Load Drops to 50%
shaanxi Yanchang	40	on April 24, parking maintenance for three days

henan Shunda acetic acid plant has maintained half-load operation for a long time. Since mid-to-late April, Nanjing Celanese's 1.2 million-ton/year acetic acid plant has been shut down for maintenance, and Guangxi Huayi's 1.2 million-ton/year acetic acid plant has been halved in the middle of the load, resulting in a significant decline in the industry's operating rate. Supply reduction, overlay the early downstream and traders low to fill the warehouse, domestic acetic acid social inventory fell to a low level. According to statistics from Zhongyu Information, as of mid-April, the total inventory of acetic acid was about 140000 tons (as shown in the figure below), which was at an absolute low point in the past two years.

醋酸库存.png

On the demand side, PTA is operating less than 80%; vinyl acetate is also due to Nanjing Celanese parking maintenance, the operating rate fell sharply; other products, such as acetate and acetic anhydride, do not fluctuate much. However, due to a number of downstream PTA, acetic anhydride and chloroacetic acid and glycine near the cost line or even loss-making sales, so the stage replenishment attitude turned to wait-and-see, the demand side is difficult to play a long-term support. In addition, the user's pre-holiday stock mood is not positive, the market atmosphere is general, leading to acetic acid factory push up caution.

In terms of exports, the price reduction from India is obvious, and the export sources are mostly concentrated in the main acetic acid plants in South China; while the volume and price from Europe are better, and the total export volume from January to April this year has increased significantly compared with last year.

Later, although there is no pressure on the supply side, Guangxi Huayi is reported to have returned to normal around April 20. Nanjing Celanese heard that it would restart at the end of the month, and the operating rate is expected to increase in the later period. During the May Day holiday, due to the restrictions of logistics and transportation, the overall inventory is expected to accumulate. And based on the poor economic situation, it is difficult to have a substantial increase in demand. Some operators have loosened their mentality and expect the short-term acetic acid market to run lightly.

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