[Industry Focus]：Market Analysis of methanol industry chain, the overall price of methanol rises

Last week, the domestic methanol market performed well and the overall center of gravity rose. As of 15:00 on the 25th, China's methanol price index was 2503, up 43 points from the same period last week. Last week, under the loose monetary policy, energy products rose collectively and methanol futures rose, which boosted the mentality of market operators and led to the strength of port paper spot. Under the conduction, the trading center of gravity of the mainland methanol market is also rising. Last week, downstream goods were mostly bought on demand. Affected by the outbreak of Yulin and Shenmu in northern Shaanxi, some coal mines stopped selling, some methanol transportation was restricted, and some methanol freight rates also increased. Later, we will continue to pay attention to the recovery of some equipment and the opening and stopping of equipment caused by enterprise cost problems.

methanol outlook: The overall price of the domestic methanol market has risen recently, but at present, the shipping atmosphere has subsided after the price rise of some enterprises, and the space for continuous rise in the short term may be limited, so we need to be alert to the risk of local decline. It is understood that at present, the domestic methanol cost support still exists, coupled with a strong futures boost, it is still possible to rise in the short term, but some downstream resistance is high, coupled with the recovery of local early parking equipment, continue to push the power is insufficient, it is said that local transportation vehicles are tight, in addition to freight, or to a certain extent affect some upstream shipments, need to continue to pay attention to upstream enterprise inventory changes, local prices do not rule out a decline.

formaldehyde outlook: The recent raw material methanol price is strong, the cost increases, local prices rise, but the current formaldehyde demand has not significantly improved, short-term formaldehyde prices rise or limited, need to continue to pay attention to some new equipment production.

acetic acid outlook: The domestic acetic acid market is expected to operate strongly. This week, companies will begin to implement new long-term contracts one after another, so sales pressure is expected to weaken. Downstream spot purchase intentions weakened, and new long-term contracts were mainly digested. Trading sentiment in the spot market is expected to be weaker than last week. In terms of exports, this is not enough to boost the domestic market. However, based on the low expectation of enterprise operating rate, the expected sales pressure of the mainstream spot enterprises in Northwest and Central China is limited, and the mentality of unwilling to sell will be more obvious. Jin Lianchuang believes that the acetic acid market has risen steadily this week.

DMF outlook: The possibility of DMF market weakness is expected to be high in China this week. On the supply side, the Anyang unit is expected to restart at the end of the month, and the 100,000 ton/year unit is expected to be put into operation at the end of the month. The market supply stock has increased significantly, and factory quotations may continue to fall. In terms of demand, downstream demand is relatively light, the enthusiasm to enter the market is not high, and it is difficult to improve significantly in the short term. In terms of market mentality, the market is limited, supply and demand game, most operators only need to follow the market carefully, wait and see.
Propylene Outlook: There are many uncertainties. Propylene market range is expected to be mainly volatile this week. It is recommended to pay close attention to the opening and stopping changes of upstream equipment. On the supply side, the restart plans of Luxi Chemical and Xintai Petrochemical have been postponed until this week, but there are some uncertainties. If it recovers as planned, the supply of propylene will gradually increase. On the contrary, overall supply and demand pressures remain manageable. On the demand side, the recent market for powder and ring C's main downstream products has improved, and the overall start-up enthusiasm is acceptable. However, it is reported that some large downstream plants may be expected to shut down, while most downstream plants only need to buy.

PP pellets outlook: supply surface, Dongming Petrochemical, Liaoyang Petrochemical, Yanshan Petrochemical, Dalian Hengli and other production has resumed, this week extended Jingbian, Qinghai Salt Lake, Daqing Haiding and other equipment have driving plans. According to Jin Lianchuang, only Zhenhai Refining Line plans to maintain this week, and HSBC Petrochemical's new equipment production plan is expected to increase supply this week. In terms of demand, although it has now entered the end of August, orders from plastic film, plastic weaving, non-woven fabrics and other industries have not improved significantly. In addition, the impact of high temperature and power restrictions on downstream enterprises continues, and demand still needs time. The PP market has fallen to a low level this year, with some downstream companies experiencing low-stage replenishment. However, demand follow-up was lower than expected, and operators remained cautious about entering the market. In addition, the recent strength of international crude oil has given a certain support to the market mentality. This week is the end of the month and the beginning of the month. PP market is mainly stable, there is a small rebound possibility.