On June 28,
, the "2022 Petrochemical Industry Development Conference" opened live online. At the meeting, Sun Weishan, vice president of the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation, released the "Key Petrochemical Product Capacity Early Warning Report", detailing the production capacity of 24 key petrochemical chemical products in 2021 and related forecasts in 2022.
China's refining capacity continues to improve and
will become the world's largest refiner in 2022.
2021, China's new refining capacity of 36 million tons/year, a number of small refining enterprises under 5 million tons/year shut down.
2022, PetroChina Guangdong Petrochemical's 20 million-ton/year refining project will be completed and put into operation, and my country's refining capacity will reach 0.91 billion-ton/year, surpassing the United States to become the world's largest refiner. However, with the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in China, the refined oil market will further oversupply.
Basic petrochemical raw materials are still in the peak period of production, and the
supply gap of some products has narrowed.
ethylene: production capacity of 42.04 million tons/year in 2021, up 21% year-on-year. According to the progress of the projects under construction, it is estimated that China's new production capacity will be 15.05 million tons/year in 2022, and the ethylene production capacity will reach 57.09 million tons/year, an increase of 36% year-on-year. China will become the world's largest ethylene producer. With the centralized production and release of new production capacity, the operating rate will be calculated by 85%, and the ethylene production will exceed 9 million tons, and the self-sufficiency rate is expected to increase to about 70%.
Propylene: Production capacity exceeded 50 million tons/year in 2021 and reached 50.94 million tons/year, up 12.7% year-on-year. According to the construction progress of the project, China will add 8.81 million tons/year of propylene production capacity in 2022, and the total production capacity is expected to reach 59.75 million tons/year, an increase of 17.3% year-on-year. Due to excessive new capacity and limited supply of propane raw materials, which affects the operating rate of propane dehydrogenation propylene plant, the average operating rate of the plant is expected to continue to drop to about 80%.
ethylene glycol: production capacity reached 20.81 million tons/year in 2021, up 32.7% year-on-year. According to incomplete statistics, 12 ethylene glycol projects will be put into operation in 2022 (including 8 coal-to-ethylene glycol projects), with an additional production capacity of 4.35 million tons/year, and the total production capacity is expected to reach 25.16 million tons/year, an increase of 21% year-on-year. With the gradual improvement of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of ethylene glycol, the trend of industry integration is becoming more and more obvious. The supply and demand of ethylene glycol products in China are showing a steady growth trend, but the supply growth rate is significantly higher than the consumption growth rate. It is expected that the supply gap will be reduced by 2 million ~ 3 million tons. In the next 2 to 3 years, with the commissioning of large refining and chemical projects and the increase in plant operating rate, industry competition will enter a fierce game period, and enterprises with weak competitiveness will be forced to withdraw.
p-xylene (PX): Production capacity reached 31.59 million tons/year in 2021, up 23.7% year-on-year. According to the plan, 7 PX projects will be put into operation in 2022, with an additional production capacity of 11.74 million tons/year, and the total production capacity is expected to reach 43.33 million tons/year, a year-on-year increase of 37%; domestic products will replace imports, and the supply shortage problem will be effectively alleviated. Due to the announced number of new and proposed projects, and the supply growth rate is significantly higher than the demand growth rate, China's PX in the next few years there is a risk of overcapacity.
Synthetic resin: polyolefin and polycarbonate are at the peak of capacity expansion, PVC is still overcapacity
Polyethylene (PE): Production capacity increased by 20.9% to 28.36 million tons per year in 2021, production increased by 16.3% to 23.287 million tons year-on-year, plant operating rate decreased by 3.2% to 82.1% due to more new production units, and supply gap decreased by 23% to 14.08 million tons year-on-year.
expect that in 2022, China's PE will add 4.05 million tons/year to 32.41 million tons/year, an increase of 14.3%. The growth rate of domestic PE demand will decline due to the impact of limited plastic orders. There will still be a large number of new projects to be built in the next few years, facing structural surplus pressure.
Polypropylene (PP): Production capacity increased by 11.6% to 32.16 million tons per year in 2021, production increased by 13.4% to 29.269 million tons year-on-year, plant operating rate increased by 0.4% to 91% year-on-year, and supply gap narrowed by 44.4% to 3.41 million tons year-on-year.
expect that in 2022, China's PP will add 5.15 million tons/year to 37.31 million tons/year, an increase of more than 16%. The main consumer plastic products have been surplus, but small household appliances, daily necessities, toys, automobiles, food and medical packaging materials and other injection molding products demand for PP will grow steadily, the overall supply and demand balance.
Polyvinyl chloride (PVC): in 2021, the new production capacity will be 645,000 tons/year, the withdrawal capacity will be 160,000 tons/year, the net increase will be 485,000 tons/year, and the total production capacity will be 27.13 million tons/year; the output will increase by 2.1% to 21.17 million tons year-on-year; the plant operating rate will be 78%, which is equivalent to 2020; the export volume will increase by 179% to 1.754 million tons year-on-year, reaching a new high.
It is estimated that in 2022, China's PVC will increase its production capacity by 1.2 million tons/year to 28.33 million tons/year, with an increase of 4.4%, and the production capacity will remain slightly surplus.
Polycarbonate (PC): 2021 production capacity increased by 26.7% to 2.47 million tons/year, output increased by 18.2% to 1.3 million tons, plant operating rate decreased by 3.8% to 52.6% year-on-year, and supply gap decreased by 15.2% year-on-year.
expect that in 2022, China's PC will add 720,000 tons/year to 3.19 million tons/year, a growth rate of about 29%. The absolute monopoly of foreign brands is gradually breaking, and the supply gap is shrinking, but the competition is fierce, the operating rate of the device is still relatively low, and the profit of the enterprise is more difficult.
China's polyurethane international competitiveness is strong
export increase to keep the plant operating rate at a high level
Diphenylmethane diisocyanate (MDI): In 2021, my country's MDI supply and demand increased significantly, with a new production capacity of 550,000 tons/year, and a total production capacity of 380,000 tons/year, a year-on-year increase of 16.5%; output of 3.53 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.7%; The operating rate of the plant was 90.7%, up 11.7% year-on-year; the net export volume was 767,000 tons, up 212% year-on-year; the apparent consumption was 1.135 million tons, up 59.4% year-on-year.
Toluene diisocyanate (TDI): In 2021, my country's TDI supply and demand grew slowly, with a new production capacity of 40,000 tons/year and a total production capacity of 1.42 million tons/year, a year-on-year increase of 2.9%; output of 1.235 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 22.6%; plant operating rate 87%, increased 14%; net export volume 354,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 61.4%; apparent consumption 881,200 tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%.
MDI and TDI production technology is complex, equipment investment is large, process control is difficult, and technology monopoly is high. In 2022, no new MDI and TDI projects will be completed and put into operation in China, and the production capacity will remain unchanged.
Synthetic rubber structural overcapacity is serious.
Styrene-butadiene rubber: In recent years, the supply and demand of styrene-butadiene rubber in China has grown slowly. In 2021, the production capacity was 1.75 million tons/year, with a year-on-year increase of 2.3%; the apparent consumption was 1.552 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%; the operating rate of the plant was 72%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.7 percentage points, which was basically the same as that in 202020. Net imports in 2021 were 292,000 tonnes, down 15% YoY.
It is estimated that in 2022, China's styrene-butadiene rubber will increase its production capacity by 120,000 tons/year to 1.87 million tons/year, an increase of 4.6%; domestic demand is relatively stable, and the commissioning of new units will reduce the operating rate of the units; structural overcapacity will remain unchanged.
Butadiene rubber: The demand for butadiene rubber in China has shown a downward trend in recent years due to the substitution of products. In 2021, my country's production capacity was 1.52 million tons/year, a decrease of 10,000 tons/year, a year-on-year decrease of 0.7%; apparent consumption was 1.167 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%; the operating rate of the plant was 70.4%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.1 percentage points; my country's rare earth butadiene rubber and low The total net import volume of cis-polybutadiene rubber was 97,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 54.4%.
It is estimated that in 2022, China's cis-polybutadiene rubber will increase its production capacity by 190,000 tons/year to 1.71 million tons/year, an increase of 12.5%; the supply growth rate is much greater than the demand growth rate, which will further aggravate the overcapacity.
Through years of supply-side structural reform, strict control of capacity growth of some of the basic chemical raw materials capacity utilization rate increased, has been in a relatively healthy level of development
caustic soda: in 2021, the new production capacity will be 1.09 million tons/year, the withdrawal capacity will be 715,000 tons/year, and the total production capacity will be 45.08 million tons/year, an increase of 2.1% year-on-year; the output will be 38.91 million tons, an increase of 5.2% year-on-year; since 2014 The operating rate of the plant has remained around 80%, and the operating rate in 2021 has 86%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points.According to the plan, eight caustic soda projects will be put into operation in 2022. It is estimated that the caustic soda production capacity will reach 46.32 million tons/year, an increase of 2.8%. The operating rate dropped to about 82%.
Soda ash: 2021 production capacity of 32.39 million tons/year, has remained unchanged for three years; output of 28.73 million tons; plant operating rate 88.7%;2015 has remained above 85%; apparent consumption continued to grow, reaching 28.21 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5%.is expected to reduce China's soda production capacity by 1.1 million tons/year to 31.29 million tons/year in 2022, a decrease of 3.4%;
Methanol: 2021 production capacity 97.385 million tons/year, year-on-year increase of 3.2%; output 78.16 million tons, year-on-year increase of 17.7%; plant average operating rate 80.3%; import volume 11.218 million tons, year-on-year decrease of 13.8%; apparent consumption 88.99 million tons, year-on-year increase of 4.1%.
is expected in 2022 China's methanol production capacity will exceed 0.1 billion tons/year, reaching 100.45 million tons/year, an increase of 3.3%; due to strong demand, the expected operating rate is still around 80%.
calcium carbide: production capacity in 2021 38 million tons/year, a year-on-year decrease of 2 million tons/year; output of 29 million tons, 120,000 tons more than in 2020; plant operating rate 76.3%, an increase of 4.1 percentage points year-on-year, production capacity is still excess.
It is expected that the production capacity of electric stone will remain unchanged in 2022, the demand for downstream BDO and PVC will be strong, and the operating rate will further improve.
1, 4-butanediol (BDO): 30,000 tons/year production capacity restarted in 2021, with a total production capacity reaching 2.175 million tons/year; The output was 1.82 million tons, up 16.7% year on year. The operating rate of the plant was 83.7%, up 11 percentage points year on year. Apparent consumption was 1.852 million tons, up 18.8% year on year, in a tight balance.
expects to increase capacity by 480,000 tons/year in 2022, reaching 2.655 million tons/year, an increase of 22%. Another 8.19 million tons/year capacity is planned to be put into production in 2023 and 2024, with capacity growth significantly greater than demand growth and overcapacity.
of titanium dioxide: 2021 production capacity of 4.487 million tons/year, year-on-year increase of 11.2%; output of 3.79 million tons, year-on-year increase of 8.0%; apparent consumption of 2.67 million tons, year-on-year increase of 8.1%; because the demand growth rate is less than the capacity growth rate, the plant operating rate decreased by 2.6 percentage points, to 84.5%.
is expected to increase production capacity by 1.01 million tons/year in 2022, reaching 5.49 million tons/year, an increase of 22%;
Fertilizer industry boom rebounded, nitrogen fertilizer market supply and demand balance
phosphorus fertilizer overcapacity improved.
synthetic ammonia: 2021 production capacity of 64.88 million tons/year, net withdrawal of 490,000 tons/year; output of 59.09 million tons, an increase of 0.4%; plant operating rate 91%, an increase of 1 percentage point; net imports of 773,000 tons, apparent consumption of 59.865 million tons.urea: 2021 production capacity of 65.4 million tons/year, net withdrawal of 460,000 tons/year; Output of 55.63 million tons, down 1.1% year-on-year; The average operating rate of the unit was 85.1%, down 0.3 percentage points year-on-year; Net export volume was 5.25 million tons and apparent consumption was 50.38 million tons.
is expected to 2022, China's new urea production capacity of 2.56 million tons/year to 67.96 million tons/year, an increase of 3.9%.
Phosphate fertilizer: in 2021, the net withdrawal of 340,000 tons/year (P2O5 pure, the same below), the production capacity fell to 21.41 million tons/year; the output was 16.844 million tons, an increase of 3.1% year-on-year; the plant operating rate was 78.7%, an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year; the net export volume was 3.785 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 49.6%; the apparent consumption was about 13.06 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.5%.ammonium phosphate: the output of monoammonium phosphate in 2021 will be 7.946 million tons/year. The operating rate of the plant was 77.3%, and the net export volume increased to 1.741 million tons, up 49.6% year on year. Apparent consumption was 6.205 million tons, up 0.4% year on year. The output of diammonium phosphate was 6.647 million tons/year, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%: the operating rate of the plant was 78.3%, and the 0.4% was increased; the net export was 2.897 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.2%.
is expected in 2022, China's ammonium phosphate production capacity will remain unchanged, still oversupply, monoammonium phosphate production of more than 20%, diammonium phosphate production of more than 40% still need export digestion.
Modern coal chemical industry: ushered in the development opportunity,
in addition to coal-to-ethylene glycol operating rate has been raised to a healthy level.
of coal-to-oil: there will be no new production capacity in 2021, and the total production capacity will remain unchanged at 8.23 million tons/year; the annual output will be 6.795 million tons, up 30.2% year-on-year; the plant operating rate will be 82.6%, up 19.2 percentage points from 202020.
It is expected that coal-to-oil production capacity will remain unchanged in 2022.
of coal-based natural gas: in 2021 coal-based natural gas new production capacity of 1.02 billion cubic meters/year, the total production capacity reached 6.125 billion cubic meters/year;
Coal-based natural gas production capacity is expected to remain unchanged in 2022.
of coal (methanol) to olefins: in 2021 coal (methanol) to olefins no new capacity, the total capacity remained unchanged at 16.72 million tons/year; the annual output was 15.752 million tons, an increase of 627,000 tons from 2020, an increase of 4.1%; the plant operating rate was 94.2%, an increase of 3.7 percentage points from 2020.
In 2022, coal (methanol) olefins are planned to be put into operation 3 new projects, with a new production capacity of 1 million tons/year, and by the end of 2022, the total production capacity will reach 17.72 million tons/year.
of coal (synthesis gas) to ethylene glycol: 1.86 million tons/year of new production capacity in 2021, with a total production capacity of 8.03 million tons/year, an increase of 30.1%; The annual output was 3.228 million tons, an increase of 226,000 tons over 2020. Due to the quality gap in the production of ethylene glycol products from coal (synthesis gas), and many production projects have led to a drop in the operating rate to 40.2%, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1 percentage points, which has lowered the total operating rate of ethylene glycol products, to make the operating rate of ethylene glycol plant in China low (less than 60%).
to 2022 coal (syngas) ethylene glycol new planned production projects 6, new production capacity of 4 million tons/year, by the end of 2022 total production capacity is expected to reach 12.03 million tons/year.
Lithium iron phosphate ushered in the second spring, supply and demand are growing rapidly.
With the advantages of high safety and long cycle life, lithium iron phosphate is gradually gaining market recognition. Benefiting from the rapid development of new energy vehicles and energy storage industry, as well as the attraction of the current situation of domestic supply exceeding demand, a large number of enterprises are rushing to the beach layout. At present, lithium iron phosphate is in the stage of rapid development, with many new and proposed projects, rapid growth in demand, soaring costs and rising market prices.
2021 new lithium iron phosphate production capacity of 350,000 tons/year, the total production capacity reached 712,000 tons/year, a year-on-year increase of 96.7%; output of 435,500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 212.1%; plant operating rate 61.2%, an increase of 22.6 percentage points; apparent consumption of 435,800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 213%.estimates that in 2022, the new production capacity of lithium iron phosphate will be 215,000 tons/year, and the total production capacity will reach 927,000 tons/year, an increase of 30% year-on-year; taking into account practical factors such as terminal demand and raw material supply, the output is expected to be about 650,000 tons in 2022, and the plant operating rate will increase to about 70%. Due to the number of new projects to be built, the rapid growth of production capacity, exceeding the growth rate of demand in the same period, and the tight supply of raw material phosphate rock, it is expected that China's lithium iron carbonate will face the risk of overcapacity in 2023.
Forecast of Capacity Utilization Rate of China's Key Petrochemical and Chemical Products in 2022
Source: 2022 Petrochemical Industry Development Conference, China Chemical Information Weekly * Disclaimer: The content contained in the content comes from the Internet, WeChat public number and other public channels, we maintain a neutral attitude towards the views in the article. This article is for reference only. The copyright of the reprinted manuscript belongs to the original author and the organization. If there is any infringement, please contact the customer service of Huayi Tianxia to delete it.
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