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[Industry Focus]：Acrylate industry chain analysis, which upstream and downstream products make more money?

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According to

statistics, China's acrylic acid output will exceed 2 million tons and propylene output will exceed 40 million tons in 2021. The acrylate industry chain uses propylene to produce acrylic acid, and then through related alcohols to produce acrylic acid. The representative products of acrylate are: butyl acrylate, isooctyl acrylate, methyl acrylate, ethyl acrylate and acrylic super absorbent resin. Among them, the production scale of butyl acrylate is relatively large, and the domestic production of butyl acrylate in 2021 will exceed 1.7 million tons. The second is SAP, which will produce more than 1.4 million tons in 2021. The third is isooctyl acrylate, which will produce more than 340,000 tons in 2021. The output of methyl acrylate and ethyl acrylate in 2021 was 78,000 tons and 56,000 tons respectively.

for the application of industrial chain, acrylic acid mainly produces acrylate, butyl acrylate can be used as adhesive production. Methyl acrylate is used in coating industry, adhesive, textile emulsion, etc. Ethyl acrylate is used as acrylate rubber and adhesive industry, and there is a certain overlap with the application of methyl acrylate. Isotyl acrylate is used as pressure sensitive adhesive monomer, coating adhesive, etc. SAP is mainly used as a super absorbent resin, such as diapers.

Figure 1 Acrylate Industry Chain Diagram (Image Source: Analytic Investment)

The following results can be obtained by comparing the gross profit margin (sales profit/sales price) of related products in the acrylate industry chain in the past two years:

1. In China's acrylate industry chain, the upstream raw material side has the highest profit margin, of which naphtha and propylene have relatively high profit margins. In 2021, the profit margin of naphtha is about 56%, the profit margin of propylene is about 38%, and the profit margin of acrylic acid is about 41%.

2. Among acrylate products, methyl acrylate has the highest profit margin. The profit margin of methyl acrylate will reach about 52% in 2021, followed by ethyl acrylate with a profit of about 30%. The profit margin of butyl acrylate is only about 9%, isooctyl acrylate is in a loss state, and SAP's profit is about 11%.

3. Among acrylate production enterprises, more than 93% of enterprises are equipped with upstream acrylic devices, while some enterprises are equipped with acrylic devices, most of which are concentrated in large enterprises. From the current acrylic industry chain profit distribution can be seen, acrylic production enterprises equipped with acrylic can effectively ensure the maximum profit of the acrylic industry chain, and acrylic production enterprises do not have acrylic equipped with acrylic is less economical.

4. Among acrylate manufacturers, the profit margin of large butyl acrylate has remained stable in the past two years, with a profit range of 9%-10%. However, due to market fluctuations, the profit margins of acrylic specialty ester manufacturers fluctuate greatly. This shows that large-scale products have relatively stable market profits, while small-scale products are more vulnerable to imported resources and market supply and demand imbalance.

5. From the acrylate industry chain, it can be seen that the company develops the acrylate industry chain, and the large-scale production direction is butyl acrylate, and the acrylic special ester and SAP are produced in a supporting model of butyl acrylate, which can improve market resistance. It is also a relatively reasonable production mode.

For the future, methyl acrylate, ethyl acrylate and isooctyl acrylate have their own downstream applications in the acrylate industry chain, and downstream consumption shows a positive growth trend. From the perspective of market supply and demand, methyl acrylate and ethyl acrylate have a high oversupply problem, and the future prospects are general. At present, butyl acrylate, isooctyl acrylate and SAP still have some room for development, and they are also future acrylic products with certain profitability.

for upstream acrylic, propylene and naphtha, its raw material data is gradually increasing, and the profitability of naphtha and propylene is expected to be higher than that of acrylic. Therefore, if the enterprise develops the acrylate industry chain, it should pay more attention to the integration of the industry chain, relying on the development advantages of the industry chain, there is a market feasibility.

Source: Chemical Pingtou Brother

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