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[Market information]：In March, the phenol market in China rose first and then fell, with the overall downward trend being the main focus. Later cities focused on the impact of the epidemic on logistics.

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In March, the phenol market in China rose first and then fell down as a whole. On March 1, the average price of domestic phenol market was 10812 yuan/ton, and on March 30, the price was 10657 yuan/ton, down 1.43% in the month. On the 10th, the price of domestic phenol market was 11175 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 4.65%. By the end of the month, the market in East China was about 10650 yuan/ton, the market in south China was about 10750 yuan/ton, and the market in North China and the surrounding areas of Shandong was about 10550-10650 yuan/ton.

In the first half of the month, supported by the soaring price of crude oil caused by the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the external disks such as pure benzene and styrene at the raw material end were pulled up sharply, and the increase of propylene was obvious at this time, which was favorable to increase the center of gravity and the phenol market. Later, Lihuayi stopped the supporting devices of the downstream of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company. Although there were some profits, the rally continued under the condition of low supply pressure.

Crude oil fell sharply on the 10th, and at the same time, the domestic epidemic spread in many parts of the country, causing transportation to be blocked in many places. Some downstream products were blocked due to the shipment of finished products, thus reducing the starting load of the device, thus, the demand for the raw material phenol is reduced. The shipment of goods holders was blocked and the offer was loose. The domestic pure benzene market also showed a downward trend. The phenol market lacked support and fell in response.

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Since March 28, the city of Shanghai has carried out seal control management in sub-districts. The phenolone devices of Gaoqiao Petrochemical, Sinopec Sanjing and Shanghai xisa chemical industry are all located in Jinshan chemical industrial park. Due to limited sealing control management, the delivery is blocked, resulting in the reduction of the spot flow of phenol in East China.

At the same time, the downstream Bisphenol A Market is mainly in the downward trend. In early March, the Bisphenol A Market continued to fall, the main reason is that the supply and demand side is not good, the upstream raw materials continue to fall, while the downstream is difficult to have demand, the conversation is sluggish, and the market once fell to 15300 yuan/ton. However, near the end of the month, under the favorable demand for centralized replenishment of downstream PC terminals, the market rebounded rapidly and increased by 1,000-1300 yuan/ton, with a significant increase, as of 30th, the mainstream offer in the domestic market reached 16400-16500 yuan/ton.

The logistics problem caused by the epidemic in the middle and late months has become more and more serious. The circulation of goods in the region is not smooth, and double raw materials have also entered the downward channel one after another. Under the continuous profit-sharing of goods holders, the market has accelerated downward, the market focus has been severely frustrated. In the latter half of the year, the pressure of petrochemical manufacturers concentrated on lowering the guiding price, but the trend of market weakness was difficult to contain, and the transaction on exchange was deserted.

Recently, due to the high prices of upstream raw materials such as crude oil, pure benzene and propylene, the profit of domestic phenol ketone plants has also shrunk significantly. Considering the impact of the epidemic on the market, the focus of attention in the later period will still be on the supply and demand side of the phenol market.

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Supply end pay attention to the stable operation of the second phase phenol ketone unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical Company after it is put into operation; After the two sets of phenol A units of Lihua yiweiyuan are stopped and repaired, the quantity of phenol products will be reduced; and the follow-up impact of the Shanghai epidemic on the production of three local phenol ketones.

Demand side concerned about the production of two new sets of phenol A, 200,000 tons/year in Cangzhou Dahua Co., Ltd and 240,000 tons/year in Hainan Huasheng originally planned to be put into production in April, but due to the recent spread of the epidemic, some market participants are also worried about the production time or the delay of the deposit.

In April, we should continue to pay attention to the logistics and transportation situation caused by the epidemic, in particular, the logistics in the northern region is blocked, and the shipping pressure of goods holders is relatively high. At this stage, downstream terminal enterprises just need to follow up and have little replenishment intention. On the other hand, the recent cost is greatly affected by the fluctuation of crude oil. It is estimated that the supply and demand in April will not change much, and it is expected that the domestic Phenol Market will fluctuate.

Source: ICIS anxun si, Business Club

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